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15:10
May 31
May 31
TIP 1ST
IEF 1ST
DBC 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy TIPS for inflation protection
Inflation will be higher in the future due to persistent debt and deficits, so Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) provide built-in inflation protection and make sense as a diversifier in portfolios.
TIP LONG
Buy 10-year when yields high
The 10-year Treasury yield has been range-bound between roughly 3.75% and 4.75% due to government intervention and economic constraints. A tactical trade of buying bonds when yields hit the upper end (4.75-5%) and selling when yields fall to the lower end (3.75-4%) can be profitable.
IEF LONG
Commodities have another leg up driven by severe geopolitical supply chain risks (e.g., Strait of Hormuz tensions) and depleted inventories of oil, diesel, fertilizer, and other inputs. The bull case for energy and agricultural commodities is strong even if equity markets ignore it.
DBC LONG
Buy long bonds at high yields
If commodity supply shocks trigger an economic pullback or recession, long-term bond yields will fall. Buying long-term US Treasuries when yields reach the upper fours (around 4.75-5%) offers a good entry point as a hedge and capital appreciation trade.
TLT LONG
HIGH
16:01
May 26
May 26
San Francisco apartments
INDS 1ST
Brazil real estate
Sun Belt apartments
▾
HIGH
San Francisco apartments are a strong buy.
San Francisco is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI companies occupying office space, a new mayor improving safety and cleanliness, and rents rising over 10% year-over-year. GTIS is buying apartment buildings at 50% off replacement cost, focusing on units with high turnover to capture market rents. The virtuous cycle of job growth, population return, and limited new supply makes San Francisco apartments a compelling investment.
San Francisco apartments LONG
US industrial/logistics real estate is bullish.
US industrial and logistics real estate is benefiting from reshoring, near-shoring, and the need for warehouse space near new factories. New supply starts are down 50%, while demand remains solid from just-in-time inventory needs and data center supply chains. GTIS is actively developing warehouses in the Carolinas and Texas, with strong leasing activity.
INDS LONG
Brazil real estate is attractive long-term.
Brazil's real estate market offers attractive opportunities, particularly in São Paulo office and industrial sectors. The country benefits from commodity exports, a recovering currency, and high-quality buildings in strong demand from multinational tenants. GTIS has built top-tier office towers and is developing a large spec office building pre-leased to a major tenant. The high interest rate environment is a headwind but cash buyers are active.
Brazil real estate LONG
Sun Belt apartments are oversupplied and avoid.
Sun Belt markets like Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, and Phoenix are suffering from severe oversupply of apartments, with concessions such as 3-4 months free rent. The oversupply is taking longer to clear than expected (over 2.5 years in Phoenix), and employment growth is not absorbing units quickly. These markets are unattractive for new investment.
Sun Belt apartments AVOID
HIGH
15:04
May 25
May 25
SPY
XLE 1ST
INDA 1ST
MU 1ST
IFX.DE 1ST
▾
HIGH
US growth resilient, favored allocation.
US growth holds up substantially better than peers because the US is not on the receiving end of the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz, and the strong dollar supports US assets.
SPY LONG
Buy energy as inflation driver.
Energy is a key driver of PPI inflation; buying energy benefits from that inflation because when the PPI rises, you need to buy the stuff that makes it go up.
XLE LONG
India growth accelerating, strong data.
India is the only EM with accelerating growth due to the removal of reciprocal tariffs and ability to buy Russian oil, making it a standout in a strong dollar environment.
INDA LONG
Micron cheap on forward earnings.
Micron, peer to SK hynix, is also still cheap on forward PE and the speaker has been long the stock for a long while, continues to hold it.
MU LONG
Infineon gains from power semis.
Infineon in Germany is a great example of the power semiconductor space accelerating in the late cycle, as pricing power moves toward lower-margin semiconductor trades.
IFX.DE LONG
HP benefits from semis scarcity.
HP has a strong supply chain and pricing power allowing it to pass on increased semiconductor costs to enterprise consumers, making it a beneficiary of the wafer cannibalization and scarcity in consumer electronics.
HPQ LONG
10-year yield to exceed 5%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is likely to exceed 5% due to the inflation environment and the steepening yield curve driven by fiscal and foreign demand dynamics.
US10Y LONG
Semis benefit from AI inflation.
AI demand is causing PPI inflation; semiconductors have scarce supply relative to demand (near 100% GPU utilization) and full pricing power, making them beneficiaries of the inflation they create.
SMH LONG
SK hynix cheap on earnings momentum.
SK hynix, despite a dramatic price surge, is not particularly expensive on a forward price-to-earnings basis, and its momentum is backed by strong earnings, making it a worthwhile hold.
000660.KS LONG
Quantum lacks earnings, avoid.
Quantum computing names like Rigetti Computing have no earnings and no prospects of earnings for years, making them pure speculation and dangerous to buy.
RGTI AVOID
Wolfspeed benefits from power pricing.
Wolfspeed has been the best semiconductor trade over the past month, benefiting from the late-cycle shift where lower-margin power semiconductor names accelerate.
WOLF LONG
HIGH
16:42
May 24
May 24
Monetary Matters
10d
BIZD
▾
MED
Some BDCs are attractive at discount.
Some publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) are trading at a discount to NAV (around 85 cents) and present an attractive risk/reward, especially relative to private credit interval funds still valued at par. He expects increased interest from investors and sees potential opportunity for selective buyers.
BIZD LONG
MED
13:00
May 17
May 17
13:01
May 16
May 16
Monetary Matters
18d
AIQ 1ST
▾
MED
AI earnings bubble is unsustainable.
The current AI stock bubble is not in price but in unsustainable earnings expectations. The S&P 500 is expected to earn $400 billion, but GDP growth only provides roughly $175 billion in new corporate profits. Over 62% of earnings growth is expected from AI stocks, which is unrealistic given the size of the pie. If AI earnings fall short, AI stocks will decline; if they exceed, the rest of the S&P will suffer. The bubble will eventually pop, but timing is unknown and shorting is dangerous.
AIQ AVOID
MED
17:44
May 15
May 15
Monetary Matters
19d
SOYB 1ST
VGK 1ST
CORN 1ST
DAX 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long corn, wheat, soybeans on fertilizer.
Long corn, wheat, and soybeans as a direct agricultural commodity position. The thesis is driven by fertilizer stress (phosphate from the Strait of Hormuz), rising diesel costs, and potential China demand from a US-China trade deal. Prices have held above the March 2nd war-start low, and further upside is expected.
SOYB LONG
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
Long US, short Europe on energy.
Go long US equities and short European equities as a relative-value pair trade. Europe is energy-dependent and struggling with the price shock from the Iran war, while the US benefits from energy self-sufficiency and strong AI-driven earnings. The trade exploits the divergence in energy exposure.
VGK SHORT
Long ags, short DAX pair trade.
A pair trade of long corn, wheat, soybeans versus short German equities (DAX). The agricultural commodities benefit from fertilizer and energy input stress, while Germany's energy-dependent economy is particularly vulnerable to the price shock. The trade has another 20-30% upside expected.
DAX SHORT
Long US stocks, don't sell blow-off.
The US stock market is in a momentum-driven blow-off phase similar to 1999. Fundamentals and liquidity are supportive enough to sustain further upside, with technical targets of S&P 500 at 77,800 and Russell at 30,000. Selling into this momentum is dangerous; investors should remain long and not try to pick a top.
SPY LONG
IWM LONG
Long US, short Australia on energy.
Go long US equities and short Australian equities as a relative-value pair trade. The US is an energy surplus nation, while Australia is heavily energy-import dependent and faces additional headwinds from a capital gains tax hike (23% to 40%) and an RBA rate hike. The technical and liquidity setup favors the pair.
EWA SHORT
Short gold on ratio weakness.
Short gold in the trading book. Gold has failed to benefit from the bear steepening in yield curves; the gold-to-30-year bond ratio is making lower highs, suggesting metals are vulnerable. He expects gold to trade sideways or lower, and is short the metal in his active portfolio while holding physical gold separately.
GLD SHORT
HIGH
19:08
May 13
May 13
Monetary Matters
21d
SMH 1ST
Latin America
BTC
XLE 1ST
KBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI demand drives semiconductor demand
The semiconductor industry benefits from physical bottlenecks in GPU production, memory manufacturing, and foundry capacity. Only a few players control the market, making it a 'picks and shovels' play with high barriers to entry. This structural advantage supports continued outperformance.
SMH LONG
Likes Latin America and banks
Latin America, including its banking sector, offers value-oriented investment opportunities. She prefers this region for its discounted valuations and potential for growth, especially in regulated banking franchises.
Latin America LONG
Still bullish on Bitcoin multi-year
Bitcoin remains a multi-year holding because of its decentralized, permissionless nature and potential as a store of value and working capital for AI agents. The fundamental case is intact despite short-term correlation with tech stocks.
BTC LONG
Energy as stagflation hedge holds
Energy and commodity producers serve as a strategic hedge against stagflationary shocks such as the Strait of Hormuz closure. They perform well when input costs rise, and current disruptions boost cash flows. She holds the position long-term and does not chase recent gains.
XLE LONG
Likes banks for value
Banks in general are attractive from a value perspective. They offer low multiples and potential for returns as part of a barbell approach alongside growthier assets like Bitcoin and AI.
KBE LONG
HIGH
13:57
May 12
May 12
17:30
May 10
May 10
Monetary Matters
24d
PQUS 1ST
PQNT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Pictet ETFs target 1-2% alpha via ML.
Pictet's AI-enhanced ETFs (PQNT and PQUS) use machine learning (gradient boosting on decision trees) on over 400 features to forecast 20-day relative returns. They aim for a beta of 1 to their benchmarks (MSCI EAFE for PQNT, S&P 500 for PQUS) and target 1–2% annual outperformance, functioning as passive replacement products.
PQUS LONG
PQNT LONG
HIGH
14:57
May 06
May 06
Monetary Matters
28d
B3SA3 1ST
XP 1ST
VLO 1ST
SNEX 1ST
MPC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil financials benefit from rate cuts and politics.
Latin America, especially Brazil, is undergoing a political shift toward pro-business policies. After years of high real rates crushing equity turnover, the central bank has started cutting rates. This is driving a recovery in equity volumes, benefiting financial infrastructure companies like B3 (the stock exchange) and XP (wealth management platform). The potential for a multi-year pickup in IPOs and privatization adds further upside.
B3SA3 LONG
XP LONG
Refiners are structurally tight and cheap.
Refiners are benefiting from a structural supply-demand imbalance. New refinery construction has stalled, existing capacity is running at high utilization, and crack spreads have surged. The market underestimates how tight the market is beyond geopolitical noise. Large PADD 3 refiners like Marathon and Valero trade at a fraction of replacement cost and are using elevated cash flows for buybacks, which will drive shareholder returns. This is a multi-year opportunity until new capacity is announced.
VLO LONG
MPC LONG
Commodity brokers gain from rising volatility.
Commodity brokers Marex and StoneX are positioned to benefit from both structural and cyclical increases in commodity futures volumes. Volatility from geopolitical events, inflation hedging, and corporate risk management are driving volumes. These are high-quality, tech-enabled businesses with 20-30% ROEs, sticky client relationships, and a long runway as more corporates seek to hedge risks.
SNEX LONG
Marex (MRX) LONG
Brookdale benefits from demographic supply shortage.
Elder care facilities face a severe supply-demand imbalance. No new senior living facilities have been built since 2017, while the baby boomer population is aging rapidly. Brookdale, the largest operator, has undergone activist-driven management changes and is now improving occupancy. Although the stock may be ahead of itself short term, the multi-year tailwind from demographic demand and no new supply until 2030 makes it a compelling long-term investment.
BKD LONG
HIGH
16:37
May 04
May 04
Monetary Matters
1mo
BNO
IGV
SMH
SPY 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Strait of Hormuz closure creates huge oil deficit
Oil prices are expected to rise further due to the 10 million barrel-per-day deficit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Managed demand destruction only delays the crisis, and inventory draws are accelerating. The safest way to play this is through August Brent crude.
BNO LONG
Long semi, short software captures AI divergence
The spread between semiconductors and software represents the market's belief in AI. Until software's role in the AI ecosystem is settled, being long semiconductors and short software captures the compute-demand upside while hedging disruption risk. The Mythos model and GPU scarcity validate this trade.
IGV SHORT
SMH LONG
Unprecedented AI-driven earnings boom supports stocks
The stock market (S&P 500) is supported by an unprecedented earnings boom driven by AI capex, fiscal stimulus, and a resilient economy. Earnings estimates are rising vertically, and the AI revolution is powerful enough to override the oil crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
SPY LONG
Energy equities as portfolio diversifier and hedge
Energy equities are structurally overweight as a portfolio diversifier. They have negative correlation to equities and act as a risk dampener, similar to bonds. This positioning has helped the RAA fund through recent volatility.
XLE LONG
HIGH
22:19
May 02
May 02
Monetary Matters
1mo
BP 1ST
MRNA 1ST
NOC 1ST
Japan Energy Stocks
BAESY 1ST
▾
MED
BP sentiment up, not priced in
BP has seen strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, presenting a long opportunity.
BP LONG
MRNA sentiment positive, not priced
Moderna (MRNA) has strong positive sentiment that is not priced into the stock, making it a long opportunity within the high-intangible stock universe.
MRNA LONG
Northrop sentiment up, not priced
Northrop Grumman (NOC) has strong positive sentiment upward that is not priced in, making it a long opportunity in the defense space.
NOC LONG
Japan energy stocks attractive long
Japan energy stocks have good trend, above-average valuation, strong sentiment, and above-average quality, making them a fertile ground for long-side alpha hunting.
Japan Energy Stocks LONG
BAE sentiment positive, not priced in
BAE Systems has experienced strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, creating a long opportunity due to market dislocation from the Iran war.
BAESY LONG
Amazon sentiment negative, not priced
Amazon has seen negative sentiment shifts that are not reflected in its average returns, creating a short opportunity as negative sentiment is not priced in.
AMZN SHORT
Orient sentiment negative, not priced
Orient Overseas (Orient HK) has downward sentiment shifts from shipping challenges in Asia that are not reflected in the stock price, signaling a short opportunity with eventual downside pressure.
0316.HK SHORT
Petrochina sentiment up, not priced
Petrochina has experienced strong upward sentiment shifts that are not yet priced into the stock, creating a long opportunity.
0857.HK LONG
Costco sentiment positive, not priced
Costco has strong positive sentiment that is not priced into the stock, making it a long opportunity within the high-intangible stock universe.
COST LONG
Southwest bear case not priced in
Southwest Airlines (LUV) has a clear bear case and negative sentiment that is not yet priced into the stock, with further downside expected.
LUV SHORT
Taiwan utilities poor, short opportunity
Taiwanese utility stocks have bad sentiment, bad quality, bad trend, and are expensive, indicating a fertile area for short-side alpha hunting.
Taiwanese Utilities SHORT
MED
03:00
May 01
May 01
Monetary Matters
1mo
DBC 1ST
USO
Crude Oil (Brent)
BA 1ST
RTX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Protracted war keeps oil elevated.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade will be protracted because there is no military solution and Iran is willing to endure economic pain. This will keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. The December 2026 Brent crude oil futures contract is making new highs, indicating the market does not expect a quick resolution. Jim Bianco recommends long oil positions via DBC (Deutsche Bank commodity index ETF), USO, or direct crude oil futures.
DBC LONG
USO LONG
Crude Oil (Brent) LONG
Defense stocks underperform due to drones.
Prime defense stocks such as Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, and RTX are underperforming because 21st century warfare is shifting towards asymmetric drone warfare, making expensive conventional platforms less effective. The market is recognizing this and the stocks have been declining since late February.
BA AVOID
RTX AVOID
GD AVOID
LMT AVOID
HIGH
13:15
Apr 30
Apr 30
Monetary Matters
1mo
XLE 1ST
IGV 1ST
MSOS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil stocks are attractively priced
Oil stocks are not reflecting the likelihood of prolonged higher oil prices because everyone assumes the Middle East blockade will end soon. Sentiment is overly bearish on oil, creating a buying opportunity in oil companies. The stocks are cheap relative to the potential for sustained elevated oil prices.
XLE LONG
Software stocks are deeply undervalued
Software stocks have been indiscriminately sold off 70-80% as the market panics over AI disruption. Many of these companies have real recurring free cash flow, are adopting AI within their ecosystems, and trade at very low multiples (half of S&P 500). The negative sentiment will shift, and the stocks should recover significantly.
IGV LONG
US cannabis can rise 400%
U.S. cannabis companies are massively undervalued due to regulatory overhang, but the DEA has begun accepting applications for licenses under full descheduling, which will eliminate the 280E tax burden, enable interstate commerce, and unlock economies of scale. This could lead to a 400% move in the sector over a couple of years. The MSOS ETF is a direct way to play this.
MSOS LONG
HIGH
10:30
Apr 29
Apr 29
Monetary Matters
1mo
URA 1ST
SOXX 1ST
VIAV 1ST
CIEN 1ST
PUI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Uranium miners benefit from nuclear demand
Nuclear power demand is rising due to AI data center power needs and restarts of plants like Three Mile Island. This directly benefits uranium miners. Old Farm has a co-invest focus on uranium miners that has performed well.
URA LONG
Semi cap equipment from memory fabs
Semiconductor capital equipment companies are poised to benefit from the construction of new memory fabs and ongoing AI demand. Old Farm is working on a strategy focused on semicap equipment.
SOXX LONG
Optical networking benefiting from AI capex
Optical networking companies are experiencing a step-function increase in demand driven by AI data center buildout. The boom is unprecedented, and valuations were attractive at entry. Names like Ciena (CIEN), Viavi (VIAV), and Lumentum (LITE) have seen massive gains. The idea was identified via a manager co-invest and has been the best performer.
VIAV LONG
CIEN LONG
LITE LONG
US power and infrastructure grid spending
The US grid is aging, and electrification, onshoring of industrial production, and AI data center power demand are creating a mega infrastructure spending cycle. Old Farm owns power and infrastructure assets to capture this trend.
PUI LONG
HIGH
18:05
Apr 26
Apr 26
Monetary Matters
1mo
PSBD 1ST
Software Loans (Broadly Syndicated)
ARCC 1ST
HYG 1ST
▾
HIGH
PSBD discount is unwarranted and attractive.
Palmer Square BDC (PSBD) trades at a deep discount to net asset value despite high transparency from monthly NAV reporting, tradable underlying assets, and strong credit quality in large borrowers. Historically, such discounts have been excellent entry points for public BDCs. The firm is actively buying back shares, which is accretive at current levels, and the discount should converge over time.
PSBD LONG
Software loan selloff is overblown opportunity.
The selloff in software loans within the broadly syndicated loan market due to AI disruption fears is overblown. The true risk of disintermediation is considerably lower because software systems are deeply embedded with high switching costs. Large borrowers in this space have better management and capital market access, making the risk-reward attractive at current discounted prices.
Software Loans (Broadly Syndicated) LONG
Aries is a strong BDC.
Aries Management (ARCC) is a well-run BDC with a long track record and strong management team. It is a respected player in the space and would be a top pick among public BDCs if not for his own firm.
ARCC LONG
High yield is unattractive due tight spreads.
The high yield bond market is currently unattractive because spreads are very tight relative to overall credit risk and have not widened meaningfully despite macro volatility. The market's credit quality has improved to mostly double-B, but yields are not compelling enough to warrant investment.
HYG AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Apr 19
Apr 19
Monetary Matters
1mo
IWM 1ST
XMTR 1ST
RELY 1ST
WISE 1ST
SPT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bullish on mispriced small-cap SaaS with adaptation moats.
The market has disproportionately sold off smaller-cap SaaS companies on fears of AI disruption, but many have the DNA to adapt, have real-world integrations, enterprise-grade security, and privileged API access that create moats. The broad sell-off based solely on size misses nuance, and as companies make credible adjustments in the agentic layer and show sustained revenue growth, a repricing will occur.
IWM LONG
Xometry is high-growth digital manufacturing marketplace play.
Xometry is a digital manufacturing marketplace that connects fragmented buyers and suppliers for custom, non-contract manufacturing parts. It is in early innings with 20-30% growth, a huge TAM, and is successfully breaking into enterprise by integrating with procurement systems. It has scaled to customers spending over $10M annually, disproving short thesis concerns, and has strong incremental margins.
XMTR LONG
Remitly undervalued due to migrant segment misunderstanding.
Remitly is laser-focused on remittances and financial services for migrant populations, a distinct segment from Wise. It is undervalued at ~2.5x sales despite strong growth and profitability scaling. Fears around migrant policy and stablecoins are overblown as its business is based on legal migrants and fiat currency needs, and demographic trends (low fertility in developed nations) support long-term migrant flows.
RELY LONG
Wise is a generational company with large TAM.
Wise is a generational company with a large market opportunity beyond remittances into broader financial services for developed markets and businesses. It has a different customer segmentation and infrastructure than Remitly, and its growth profile remains strong.
WISE LONG
Sprout Social has 100% upside from API moat and mispricing.
Sprout Social is an enterprise social media management platform with privileged API access to major social networks, a difficult-to-replicate moat due to legal and security complexities post-Cambridge Analytica. The market prices it for bankruptcy at 0.5x EV/sales (down from a $6-7B enterprise value), but the underlying business is stable with guided 8-10% revenue growth and a critical utility role for enterprises in social media management. Not much has to go right for a double.
SPT LONG
HIGH
16:25
Apr 18
Apr 18
Monetary Matters
1mo
PMT
RKLB
SILVER
NLY
FBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch mortgage stocks for rate fall.
We were starting to nibble at some mortgage stocks when everyone was waiting for rates to fall. I think rates will fall, and big players like PennyMac and Rocket will present good value, though preferred stock may offer better value.
PMT WATCH
RKLB WATCH
Long gold and silver on monetary and supply factors.
I have been buying gold and silver aggressively. Gold is a monetary trade driven by global central bank demand and will appreciate as the dollar depreciates due to U.S. debt and deficit concerns. Silver faces an acute shortage of deliverable supply due to industrial demand, making both metals an asymmetrical trade with little downside.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
Long Annaly preferred for income.
I own Annaly preferred stock as part of my income-focused strategy to maximize yield on fiat assets.
NLY LONG
Long Flagstar due to CFO-led turnaround.
I bought Flagstar very cheap because I think Lee Smith, the CFO, is going to turn that situation around.
FBC LONG
HIGH
19:50
Apr 15
Apr 15
13:04
Apr 14
Apr 14
Monetary Matters
1mo
ABNB
IWM
YOU
FWRG
Z
▾
HIGH
Bullish on Airbnb's growth and experiences.
Airbnb is reaccelerating growth, has big events this year, and its experiences tab is resonating. It is building a super app within travel and also owns HotelTonight. The company is benefiting from the experience economy and has the ability to spin up new products quickly.
ABNB WATCH
Bullish on small and mid-cap stocks.
Valuation gaps between small/mid-caps and large caps have created a massive dislocation, and with strong tax refunds offsetting oil price impacts, the consumer is in fine shape, making smaller caps attractive.
IWM WATCH
Bullish on Clear Secure due to travel.
Clear Secure is an identity platform benefiting from strong consumer travel trends (TSA throughput at record highs) and is expanding into enterprise, making it more than just an airport business.
YOU WATCH
Bullish on First Watch restaurant chain.
First Watch is a fast-growing restaurant chain that is comping positive in a concerned consumer environment, skews affluent (benefiting from K-shaped economy), and is executing well despite valuation pressure.
FWRG WATCH
Bullish on Zillow's multiple revenue streams.
Zillow has multiple revenue streams (lead generation, rentals, mortgage, payments) and is a top internet asset with high traffic but undervalued. It is growing mid-teens even in a flat housing market and is using AI to enhance its offerings. The rental business is growing quickly, and the company is expanding margins.
Z WATCH
Watching AI chip stocks for correction.
The AI chip and ecosystem companies (like Nvidia, AMD, ARM, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are transformative but may be overvalued in the short term. Waiting for a better entry point after a potential correction and more clarity on which companies are actually winning.
AMD WATCH
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
META WATCH
MSFT WATCH
ARM WATCH
NVDA WATCH
Bullish on Block due to acceleration and AI.
Block has refocused its business, flattened the organization, and is infusing AI. Its multiple businesses (Square, Cash App, Afterpay) are accelerating, showing operating leverage, and it has a strong cash position. The stock is cheap at low teens multiple, and inflation helps point-of-sale providers.
XYZ WATCH
Bullish on Blackstone due to valuation.
Blackstone's valuation has compressed dramatically, presenting an opportunistic buy in the asset management space. The firm is a leader in private equity, private debt, and real estate, and the current valuation does not reflect its long-term prospects.
BX WATCH
Bullish on Zoom as a platform company.
Zoom has transitioned from a single product to a platform (Zoom Phone, contact center, team chat) with a strong balance sheet (cash, no debt) and a valuable stake in Anthropic. Growth is accelerating, and it is winning in Office 365 accounts. Valuation is attractive at low teens free cash flow multiple.
ZM WATCH
Bullish on Omnicell due to refresh cycle.
Omnicell is a duopoly in medication management with a 10-year refresh cycle for its medication robot cabinets. It has sole source contracts, is moving towards recurring revenue, and is benefiting from automation in healthcare to reduce costs, errors, and waste.
OMCL WATCH
HIGH
13:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
Monetary Matters
1mo
XLK 1ST
▾
Software companies have experienced a significant valuation reduction, with median multiples around 4x, the lowest in the last five years, while software budgets continue to grow. Low valuations provide a favorable entry point for investors, coupled with the ongoing digitization of enterprises and the enduring fundamental value of software across eight industry types. LONG because the current valuation environment offers a prime opportunity to invest in software companies with long-term growth prospects, despite expensive niches like AI and cybersecurity. A correction in overvalued AI and cybersecurity segments could spill over; broader economic downturns may further pressure software spending or valuations.
XLK LONG
medium-term to long-term, as software adoption and AI integration are secular trends that will play out over years.
16:48
Apr 08
Apr 08
13:01
Apr 07
Apr 07
Monetary Matters
1mo
EMB 1ST
CHIR
▾
The speaker states EM debt indices have "done more damage to emerging market investors than any idiosyncratic event," citing examples where they forced ownership of Argentina pre-default (18% weight) and Russia/Ukraine pre-war. Index construction (often market-cap weighted) over-allocates to the most indebted or largest debt stock countries, conflating size with risk. Mandating benchmark neutrality or low tracking error forces low-conviction ownership and creates vintage risk. AVOID because a passive, index-replicating approach is a "very low conviction approach" that systematically exposes investors to concentrated, predictable risks and misses the alpha from active underwriting and avoidance. An index-led rally in a heavily weighted, risky country could cause short-term underperformance for an active manager avoiding it.
EMB AVOID
Long-term
The speaker identifies a select few names (5-10 out of 50+) within the distressed China property sector as presenting asymmetry, where bonds at ~5 cents could have a path to 12-18 cents through restructuring. This is true "opportunistic/distressed" investing: price is far below any plausible restructuring value, creating a call option. Alpha comes from primary research, assessing borrower willingness to restructure, and evaluating remaining viable assets/business lines. WATCH because this is a high-resolution, bottom-up hunt for specific bonds with a clear catalyst (restructuring), not a broad sector call. It requires intensive credit work to identify the few names with a cooperative debtor and executable path. Restructurings fail or are less favorable than modeled. Liquidity is poor. Broader sector or regulatory headwinds prevent recovery.
CHIR WATCH
Medium-term
12:17
Apr 04
Apr 04
Monetary Matters
2mo
INSW 1ST
DHT 1ST
FRO 1ST
▾
Ed's vessel-by-vessel tracking showed International Seaways' fleet of 29 MR tankers is heavily weighted to the US Gulf, the basin with the highest current spot rates. The US Gulf is experiencing record MR rates due to the Hormuz closure. Companies with concentrated exposure there will capture disproportionate earnings. LONG because this positioning should lead to significant earnings beats, and the stock has historically traded at a discount to peers. A rapid, orderly resolution in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly normalize rates.
INSW LONG
short-term to medium-term (next quarter earnings).
Ed praised DHT's top-tier governance, calling it a pure-play VLCC operator he would trust in a retirement account for its reliability and 100% earnings payout. While VLCCs are currently disadvantaged, DHT's exceptional quality and commitment to shareholders make it a staple. A market recovery post-disruption or from Sinaore's influence would benefit it directly. LONG as a high-conviction, lower-beta holding for investors prioritizing management quality and predictable returns. The VLCC market remains oversupplied with vessels if Middle Eastern cargoes stay offline.
DHT LONG
medium-term to long-term.
Ed called Frontline the "go-to" tanker name, praising its governance under John Fredriksen, diversified fleet (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax), and history of large dividends. As a liquid, consensus bellwether, Frontline offers beta exposure to the tanker sector. Its strong management and balance sheet make it a core holding. LONG as a high-quality, liquid way to gain general tanker market exposure with a proven capital allocator. A prolonged Hormuz closure specifically hurts its VLCC segment in the near term.
FRO LONG
medium-term to long-term.
15:10
Apr 01
Apr 01
Monetary Matters
2mo
WTI
XLK
XLE 1ST
MU 1ST
▾
Argues that even if oil goes to $200/barrel, headline CPI would peak around 6%, not 9% as in 2022, due to demand destruction and lack of excess consumer savings. High oil prices directly sap household spending power (e.g., $100 oil costs an extra ~$1,960/household), compressing demand for core goods/services and limiting secondary inflationary effects. The Fed should look through this type of commodity shock as its inflationary impact is capped and transient, but the demand destruction necessitates close monitoring of growth. A simultaneous large positive demand shock (e.g., massive defense spending) combined with the supply shock could reignite broader inflation, mimicking the 1970s.
WTI WATCH
Medium-term
Identifies the "computer software and accessories" PCE category as a primary, persistent inflation driver, fueled by an AI-driven memory chip shortage. AI data center buildout is diverting chip supply from consumer markets, causing severe price inflation (100-200%) with no near-term alternative suppliers. This represents a durable cost-push inflation shock within technology services that could add ~0.5 ppt to core PCE, warranting close monitoring for margin pressure and pricing power. A sudden, sharp drop in demand for AI computing infrastructure.
XLK WATCH
Medium-term
States that if oil stays at ~$116, US production will rise from 13 to 17-18 million barrels per day within ~9 months. Also notes that war expansion (a driver of $150-$200 oil) would necessitate higher defense spending. Higher oil prices incentivize increased domestic production (adding to GDP), and a war scenario would spur defense manufacturing, which requires commodities. The energy sector is positioned for growth in both production volume and, in a geopolitical escalation scenario, supported demand from the linked defense industrial expansion. A rapid de-escalation of conflict leading to a swift collapse in oil prices.
XLE LONG
Medium-term
States Micron is diverting production from consumer electronics to meet AI data center demand, contributing to a 100-200% increase in memory chip prices. The AI-driven shortage has "no end in sight" and no marginal producers, unlike oil, making this a persistent supply shock. Only half of the estimated price shock has passed through to consumer prices so far. Continued, inelastic demand for AI memory chips should support sustained pricing power and revenue for producers like Micron. An unexpected collapse in AI infrastructure investment demand.
MU LONG
Medium-term
13:01
Mar 31
Mar 31
18:44
Mar 29
Mar 29
Monetary Matters
2mo
BX
ARES
APO
BIZD 1ST
▾
Leyla states she is "watching the equity of the asset managers" like Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo, noting that sentiment is very negative and fee revenue is likely to decline as assets under management in their semi-liquid funds shrink due to outflows. These alternative asset managers' revenues are tied to fees from capital managed. The current redemption crisis in their semi-liquid private credit funds threatens to shrink that asset base. Extreme negative sentiment may have created a potential opportunity. WATCH because the negative catalyst (fee pressure) is clear and present, but extreme pessimism may have created a future entry point. It is not yet a buy signal. Outflows could be more severe and prolonged than expected, leading to greater fee erosion. The equity may not be cheap enough to compensate for the fundamental pressure.
BX WATCH
ARES WATCH
APO WATCH
Medium-term.
Leyla explicitly states she prefers public BDCs "by far" over private BDCs because she can "enter at a price that they deem good," specifically at a discount to NAV (e.g., 80 cents on the dollar). Public BDCs trade on an exchange, allowing investors to buy at a market-determined discount, whereas private BDCs redeem at NAV. The discount represents an immediate potential return if it closes. Furthermore, public BDCs do not face the structural liquidity pressure of meeting quarterly investor redemptions, unlike private funds. LONG because the discount to NAV offers a clear valuation gap, and the structure avoids the redemption-driven liquidity management issues currently plaguing private funds. The NAV of the BDC could be inaccurate or decline. The discount may persist or widen if market sentiment worsens further.
BIZD LONG
Medium-term (for discount closure).
16:22
Mar 27
Mar 27
Monetary Matters
2mo
EMLC 1ST
EMB 1ST
▾
Lupin said Brazilian real rates are still very high (nominal rates at 15%), the central bank is anchored, and it has room to cut, making local currency bonds attractive, especially compared to other EMs. Brazil is a commodity exporter sheltered from Middle East shocks, with high real rates providing carry and potential for easing cycles, supported by credible monetary policy. LONG due to high yields, strong fundamentals, and relative safety in the current geopolitical environment. Central bank fails to anchor inflation, geopolitical spillovers affect all EM, or domestic political issues arise.
EMLC LONG
medium-term
Lupin said duration is going to be hard, and being long duration is a difficult trade due to stagflationary impacts from the oil price shock, with EM central banks likely needing to hike rates. In a stagflationary environment, inflation shocks may force EM central banks to hike more than priced in to anchor second-round effects, leading to bond price declines. AVOID long duration positions in EM bonds as the risk-reward is unfavorable. The Middle East war ends quickly, reducing inflationary pressures and allowing central banks to pause or cut rates.
EMB AVOID
short-term
16:34
Mar 25
Mar 25
Monetary Matters
2mo
XLE
▾
Liz Ann Sonders explicitly states that the energy sector is in a "high neutral to somewhat favorable" range for a 6-12 month time horizon, but cautions that the parabolic move warrants care. The sector has outperformed due to the spike in oil prices from the war in Iran, but such rapid appreciation increases short-term risk of volatility or correction. WATCH the energy sector for potential entry points or risks, as the fundamental outlook is positive but price action is extended, making it attractive for medium-term horizons but risky for traders. A quick resolution to the war or a sharp drop in oil prices could lead to significant downside in the sector.
XLE WATCH
medium-term (6-12 months)
17:20
Mar 22
Mar 22
Monetary Matters
2mo
URA 1ST
CORN 1ST
WEAT 1ST
▾
Speaker stated urea prices have already doubled and could "blow right through" the all-time high of over $900 per ton. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed 13.5 million tons of annual urea exports with no quick replacement. There are no global stockpiles, and new production takes years to build. The market must balance via demand destruction, requiring significantly higher prices to kill enough consumption. The Strait reopens quickly, or demand destruction is more immediate and severe than anticipated.
URA LONG
medium-term
Speaker said if farmers facing high fertilizer costs switch from corn to soybeans at the last minute, it would be "very bullish on corn" due to a drop in expected supply. Current fertilizer economics make corn planting unprofitable. If farmers react by reducing corn acreage just before or during planting, supply forecasts would drop sharply. The high risk of acreage loss creates asymmetric upside potential for corn prices. Farmers absorb the high input costs, government subsidies offset the pain, or the planting mix remains unchanged.
CORN LONG
short-term
Speaker identified wheat as the commodity he is "watching most closely" and said it could be "the one that starts to take the hits first." Non-US countries have more wheat-dominant agricultural systems and may be less able to secure limited fertilizer supplies, leading to potential yield reductions before other crops. Global wheat supply is most immediately at risk from the fertilizer shortage, which should be price supportive. Major wheat producers are unaffected by the supply crunch, or a demand collapse offsets the supply threat.
WEAT LONG
medium-term
03:32
Mar 20
Mar 20
Monetary Matters
2mo
BRENT
WTI
XLE
BRN
▾
The speaker discussed how the crisis creates a geographic price shock wave, currently making Brent (Atlantic basin) cheaper than Middle Eastern crudes for Asian buyers. He also stated that US trade restrictions (e.g., product export bans) could lead to "Brent at $200 and WTI at $70." The arbitrage to move barrels from the US Gulf to Asia takes time and cost. If the US imposes export restrictions to try to lower domestic prices, it would isolate the WTI market, causing a massive local glut and a blow-out of the Brent-WTI spread. WATCH for a potential massive widening of the Brent-WTI spread. The direction implies relative weakness for WTI vs. Brent if US policy turns interventionist, creating a specific cross-commodity trade opportunity. The US refrains from implementing export restrictions, allowing the global market to balance more normally, which would keep the spread more in line with traditional transportation costs.
BRENT WATCH
WTI WATCH
Short to medium-term (contingent on US policy decisions).
The speaker detailed that refined products, specifically middle distillates (diesel, jet fuel), are experiencing acute tightness ahead of crude. Jet fuel in Singapore spiked over $200/bbl, and diesel cracks are rising sharply due to Asian refinery run cuts and the loss of Middle East diesel exports to Europe. The supply shock immediately impacts product markets because refiners are the ultimate consumers of crude. Asian refiners are cutting runs preemptively to extend feedstock runway, directly reducing product output. The Middle East was a key diesel supplier to Europe post-Russia sanctions. WATCH because the refined product complex is the leading edge of the physical crisis. Extreme cracks and prices signal severe market stress and will be the primary vector for demand destruction and economic damage before crude prices potentially reach their peak. A swift geopolitical resolution that reopens the Strait before global product inventories are critically depleted.
XLE WATCH
Short-term (immediate to weeks).
The speaker stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and optimistic rerouting efforts max out, the market would need to shed ~15 mb/d of demand, leading to prices of $250-$300/bbl for Brent. He said this would "hit all-time highs on an inflation-adjusted basis almost guaranteed." The supply shock (20 mb/d disrupted, 9 mb/d shut in) is historically unprecedented and too large for temporary offsets (SPR, oil-on-water) to cover for long. The only mechanism to destroy sufficient demand is an extreme price spike. WATCH because the thesis outlines a catastrophic price surge contingent on the continuation of the geopolitical stalemate. The direction is profoundly bullish, but the investment view is framed as a monitoring scenario for a potential macroeconomic depression trigger. Political de-escalation, most likely a unilateral declaration of victory/ceasefire by President Trump, which the speaker believes is the necessary endgame.
BRN WATCH
Short to medium-term (weeks to months).
00:18
Mar 19
Mar 19
Monetary Matters
2mo
TLT
▾
Speaker explicitly advocates being "short stocks and bonds" as a package trade. He notes bond yields have already risen as easing expectations unwound, but sees further pressure. The inflationary impulse from the oil shock will keep the Fed on hold. Persistently high inflation (PCE likely mid-3s vs. Fed's 2.7% forecast) risks unanchoring medium-term expectations, forcing long-end yields higher. With 5-year inflation expectations at 2.65% and room to move 75 bps higher, bond yields are likely to rise, creating a compelling short. The oil shock triggers an immediate, severe recession that forces the Fed to cut rates despite high inflation.
TLT NEUTRAL
medium-term
12:30
Mar 17
Mar 17
15:43
Mar 16
Mar 16
Monetary Matters
2mo
TLT 1ST
EMB 1ST
SCCO
FCX
PPLT
▾
I'm picturing this scenario of a wall of ocean of fiscal stimulus in two years and then I'm not seeing necessarily rates being low five years from now. While the front-end of the yield curve will drop due to immediate deflationary job losses, the government will eventually respond to mass unemployment with extreme deficit spending and Universal Basic Income. This massive fiscal injection will reignite inflation, causing long-dated bond yields to rise and steepening the yield curve. Avoid long-duration US Treasuries because future multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus packages will destroy the value of long-term government debt. The deflationary impact of AI is so overwhelming that even massive government stimulus cannot generate inflation, causing long-end bonds to rally alongside the front-end.
TLT AVOID
long-term
The way to get into emerging markets is after they blow up, not before... I'm cautious about emerging markets when they're already performing well. Emerging market currencies (like the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and Turkish Lira) have provided strong carry trade returns for several years. Historically, these trades are prone to sudden, devastating drawdowns. Entering now is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller; it is safer to wait for a systemic crisis to reset valuations before allocating capital. Avoid emerging market currency and debt carry trades as they are late in their cycle and highly vulnerable to a sudden macro shock. Emerging markets remain stable and continue to pay high yields, resulting in significant missed income for those sitting on the sidelines.
EMB AVOID
CEW AVOID
medium-term
Compute power consumption will grow so quickly that people still do not comprehend what actually where the charts on compute power consumption actually lead... I don't think there's enough copper on the planet to so it's AI demand story. The exponential growth of AI requires a massive buildout of data centers and electrical grid infrastructure. Because electricity generation and transmission are highly copper-intensive, this will create a structural, physical supply deficit that cannot be easily solved by current mining output. Long copper and major copper miners to capitalize on the physical infrastructure bottleneck created by the AI energy boom. AI adoption slows down, or technological breakthroughs allow for significantly more energy-efficient compute, reducing the need for grid expansion.
SCCO NEUTRAL
FCX NEUTRAL
CPER NEUTRAL
long-term
Hundreds years of patterns of platinum, gold, silver, and platinum cycles going and usually gold is the one that goes first and then gold mining stocks tend to lag... silver caught up to gold... and platinum goes afterwards. So the cycle actually it's very natural to platinum cycle right now to start. Precious metals move in sequential, multi-decade cycles rather than moving perfectly in tandem. Because gold and silver have already experienced massive breakouts, capital will naturally rotate into platinum as a historical store-of-value catch-up trade, regardless of near-term industrial EV demand. Long platinum to capture the delayed, cyclical rotation of capital within the precious metals complex. Industrial demand for platinum (auto catalysts) drops faster than the monetary/store-of-value premium can compensate, keeping prices suppressed.
PPLT NEUTRAL
long-term
If BOJ raises interest rates that will necessarily lead to stronger yen. But if they don't raise rates then the elongated bonds which yield like three and a half percent will continue making money. So that's kind of a perfect trade lock. Japan offers an asymmetric, dominant macro setup. The Yen is historically undervalued. If the Bank of Japan hikes rates to fight local inflation, the currency will appreciate sharply. If they do nothing, investors still earn a positive carry on Japanese bonds because domestic funding costs remain at zero. Long the Japanese Yen as a high-probability macro trade with strong causality between potential rate hikes and currency appreciation. The BOJ refuses to hike rates while the US Federal Reserve keeps US rates elevated, causing the interest rate differential to widen and the Yen to depreciate further.
FXY NEUTRAL
medium-term
We're having suddenly severe job losses start and we're having deflation across the board and job losses. They have no choice but by start cutting rates. AI will permanently eliminate entire sectors of white-collar economic activity (legal, medical consulting, basic coding), causing a severe deflationary shock. To combat this unprecedented structural unemployment, the Federal Reserve will be forced to aggressively cut short-to-medium term interest rates back toward zero. Long short and intermediate-duration US Treasuries to front-run the inevitable Fed easing cycle triggered by AI-induced job displacement. AI productivity gains create enough new economic growth to offset job losses, keeping inflation sticky and preventing the Fed from cutting rates to zero.
IEF NEUTRAL
SHY NEUTRAL
medium-term
14:40
Mar 13
Mar 13
Monetary Matters
2mo
LYB 1ST
ICLN 1ST
BASFY 1ST
DOW 1ST
CVX 1ST
▾
"Highly energy-intensive industries will not be located in Europe. They're going to be located where there are primary energy resources which are much cheaper and those are basically areas with sun and areas with lots and lots of fossil fuels, which is probably means the United States and the Arab world." If European petrochemical production is structurally dead, global market share will shift to regions with cheap, abundant primary energy. US-based chemical manufacturers benefit from the domestic shale gas advantage (cheap natural gas liquids for feedstocks), giving them a massive, sustainable cost advantage over international competitors. LONG US-based petrochemical and energy-intensive industrial companies, as they will capture the market share abandoned by de-industrializing European peers. A global recession could crush overall demand for chemicals and plastics, outweighing the geographic cost advantage.
LYB LONG
DOW LONG
long-term
"We all feel actually we must become more energy independent as far as we can and that means going for nuclear energy and renewables... whether we can move to a fully renewable grid effectively... it will require enormous amounts of battery storage and that's a major issue." The geopolitical vulnerability of importing fossil fuels is forcing Europe and China to aggressively build out wind and solar. Because these sources are intermittent, the grid cannot function without utility-scale battery storage. Companies that provide grid-scale energy storage and broad clean energy infrastructure will see massive, state-sponsored demand as a matter of national security. LONG utility-scale battery storage providers and broad clean energy infrastructure funds, as they are the mandatory bottleneck for the global energy transition. High interest rates make capital-intensive renewable and storage projects difficult to finance, potentially slowing the pace of the transition.
ICLN LONG
long-term
"Steel will never be I think truly competitive in Europe again and chemicals particularly petrochemicals... Europe is not a doesn't have a comparative advantage in producing this stuff and it is going to move elsewhere." European heavy industry relies heavily on imported energy. Without cheap Russian gas or abundant domestic fossil fuels, European steelmakers (like ArcelorMittal) and chemical giants (like BASF) face structurally higher input costs than their global peers. This will lead to permanent margin compression, forced capacity shutdowns, and costly relocations. SHORT (or AVOID) European heavy industrials, specifically in the steel and petrochemical sectors, as their core geographic footprint is fundamentally uncompetitive in the new global energy reality. European governments could implement massive, sustained subsidies or strict protectionist tariffs (like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) that artificially prop up domestic heavy industry margins.
BASFY SHORT
long-term
"If it lasts for a month or two or three... the prices could get to $150 plus for a long time... The United States of course because of the shale oil and gas revolution... is self-sufficient in oil and gas. So actually as a country it's going to be richer as a result of the war if the oil price and gas prices go up." A Middle East conflict that disrupts the Strait of Hormuz will cause a massive global supply shock. Because US energy producers operate outside this conflict zone and have abundant domestic reserves, they will capture the massive upside of $150+ oil without suffering the physical disruptions or geopolitical risks of Middle Eastern producers. LONG US-based energy producers and broad US energy sector ETFs, as they are the direct beneficiaries of a geopolitical risk premium and structural US energy independence. The conflict de-escalates quickly, or the US government imposes severe windfall taxes and export bans that cap the upside for domestic producers.
CVX LONG
XLE LONG
XOM LONG
medium-term
19:44
Mar 11
Mar 11
Monetary Matters
2mo
NVDA 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
LMT 1ST
MSFT 1ST
SPY
▾
"I think that there is a significant probability that we're experiencing an AI bubble and the breaking of that bubble itself will have significant macroeconomic consequences... each of them believes they will be the monopoly... if there's enough competition they won't be making monopoly profits." Mega-cap tech companies are engaging in an unsustainable capex arms race to build AI data centers. Because competition will prevent any single company from extracting monopoly rents, the return on invested capital (ROIC) will severely disappoint, leading to a collapse in their elevated valuation multiples. AVOID. The underlying economics of the AI infrastructure build-out do not support current valuations, making the sector highly susceptible to a bubble burst. AI adoption accelerates faster than expected, creating new high-margin revenue streams that justify the massive capital expenditures.
NVDA AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
MSFT AVOID
medium-term
"We want to be free from Russian invasion. So, we need to have a defense... Russia is an enemy that exists and they don't believe in democracy. We need to protect ourselves." The escalating geopolitical fragmentation, highlighted by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, guarantees that Western governments will be forced to maintain or expand defense budgets regardless of domestic economic weakness. LONG. Prime defense contractors offer a safe haven with visible, government-backed revenue streams during periods of global instability. A sweeping global peace initiative or severe US fiscal austerity measures that force cuts to the defense budget.
LMT LONG
GD LONG
RTX LONG
long-term
"We are facing a risk of stagflation, prices going up first because of the tariffs, now because of the war. And we are already having slow growth, the destruction of 92,000 jobs last month." The combination of an oil shock, a food shock, and a tariff shock is simultaneously driving up input costs for corporations while crushing consumer purchasing power. This toxic macro environment (stagflation) will lead to severe earnings compression across broad equities. SHORT. Broad market indices are vulnerable to a significant rerating as inflation remains sticky and economic growth stalls. The Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates to stimulate the economy, or AI-driven productivity gains offset the inflationary pressures.
SPY NEUTRAL
QQQ NEUTRAL
medium-term
"Now, of course, the oil companies, Exxon, are going to be very happy. Russia is going to be very happy... Exxon successfully pushed back against those efforts [windfall taxes] and they will do the same if we try that today." The war with Iran is causing a real, physical disruption to global oil supplies, driving prices above $100. Major US oil producers will capture massive windfall profits from this supply shock, and historical precedent suggests they will successfully lobby against any government attempts to tax these excess margins. LONG. US energy majors are perfectly positioned to benefit from soaring crude prices while remaining insulated from domestic windfall taxes. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global recession that destroys baseline oil demand.
XOM LONG
OXY LONG
CVX LONG
medium-term
"China has committed to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028... At the same time, the EPA has proposed increasing biomass-based diesel mandates by as much as 67% for 2026, and soybean oil is the leading domestic feed stock." Soybeans are benefiting from a dual-demand shock: guaranteed international trade flows (China) and domestic regulatory tailwinds (EPA renewable diesel mandates). This structural demand will outpace supply, driving up the underlying commodity price. LONG. The Teucrium Soybean Fund provides direct exposure to a commodity with legally and geopolitically mandated demand growth. Changes in EPA regulations, breakdown of the US-China bilateral trade framework, or adverse weather patterns affecting crop yields.
SOYB LONG
medium-term
19:50
Mar 10
Mar 10
Monetary Matters
2mo
XLP 1ST
GLD 1ST
XLF 1ST
XLK 1ST
KWEB 1ST
▾
Around the peak, you would typically see commodity markets exploding upwards... resource stocks, energy stocks outperforming, beginning to see some evidence of utilities beginning to outperform and investors starting to reach towards stable demand consumer staple stocks. As the global liquidity cycle rolls over from speculation to a defensive posture, capital rotates out of long-duration growth assets and into cyclical value (energy/commodities) and defensive value (utilities/staples) that offer stable cash flows. LONG. Late-cycle and defensive sectors historically outperform as liquidity momentum slows and the real economy absorbs capital away from financial markets. A sudden re-acceleration of central bank quantitative easing could cause growth and tech stocks to resume their market leadership, leaving defensive sectors behind.
XLP LONG
XLE LONG
DBC LONG
XLU LONG
medium-term
As that money comes into the system, it's going into risk assets and is going into gold as a monetary inflation hedge. So, that line likely is going higher. Gold has decoupled from US real interest rates and is now being driven by Asian liquidity. As the PBOC prints money, Chinese citizens and institutions are buying gold to hedge against domestic monetary debasement. LONG. The marginal pricer of gold is now Eastern liquidity, meaning PBOC easing will continue to drive gold higher regardless of what the US Federal Reserve does. If China successfully stabilizes its real estate market and economy, domestic capital might rotate out of gold and back into property or other local assets.
GLD LONG
long-term
I would be probably beginning to trim some financial holdings on the basis that financials get a lot of their gas from steeper yield curves and so if that's we're near the end of that, that's something to bear in mind. Banks and financial institutions rely on a steep yield curve to expand their net interest margins (borrowing short and lending long). A flattening yield curve removes this core profitability engine. AVOID. The macroeconomic environment is shifting away from the steepening curve that financials need to outperform. If the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts short-term rates while long-term rates remain anchored by heavy Treasury issuance, the curve could steepen, boosting financial stocks.
XLF AVOID
medium-term
You got to trim your equity exposure. You got to get out of credits... and then in industry groups within the market I would be out of technology until the next time. The ratio of equity market capitalization to global liquidity is stretched to 2008 levels. Without expanding liquidity to support high valuation multiples, long-duration assets like technology stocks will derate. AVOID. The liquidity cycle no longer supports the high multiples required to sustain the tech sector's outperformance. Massive AI-driven productivity gains could generate enough organic earnings growth to offset the contraction in valuation multiples caused by tightening liquidity.
XLK AVOID
QQQ AVOID
medium-term
China will be the only bull market that I would be convinced of this year... The thing to look at are things like Chinese technology stocks. The People's Bank of China is injecting massive amounts of liquidity (estimated at 7 trillion yuan) to bail out its debt and real estate crisis. Because of capital controls, this liquidity is trapped domestically and will flow into Chinese risk assets. LONG. China's liquidity cycle is expanding and completely decoupled from the tightening Western cycle, providing a strong macro tailwind for Chinese equities. Geopolitical tensions, new US tariffs, or a failure of the PBOC's stimulus to restore domestic confidence could derail the equity rally.
KWEB LONG
FXI LONG
medium-term
The trend in that black line is still downwards and we're likely to see much smaller peaks in liquidity... and that would not be great for Bitcoin through this period. Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive asset in the world. With global liquidity momentum slowing, Bitcoin will face near-term headwinds, but significant pullbacks (one standard deviation below trend) offer strategic entry points. WATCH. Wait for the liquidity cycle to bottom or for Bitcoin to reach deep value territory before accumulating for the next cycle. An unexpected pivot to aggressive quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could cause Bitcoin to surge before reaching the targeted pullback levels.
BTC WATCH
short-term
I think the second half year may surprise us in terms of some firmness in the dollar. If we're moving to a risk-off environment, investors will like this comfort of US safe assets. While the US administration may try to talk the dollar down in the near term, structural capital outflows from Asia into the US and a global flight to safety later in the year will overwhelm political rhetoric. LONG. The US dollar will benefit from its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset when the global liquidity downturn triggers broader market turbulence. Coordinated global central bank intervention to weaken the dollar, or a massive acceleration in US debt monetization, could permanently impair the dollar's safe-haven appeal.
UUP LONG
medium-term
If the bond markets face declining liquidity then they're going to act with their feet and basically yields will start to come down. So, I think you could see potentially here the risk of a bullish flattening. Consensus is positioned for a steepening yield curve, but term premiums are actually peaking. As liquidity tightens and markets move to a risk-off stance, investors will seek the safety of government bonds, driving mid-duration yields lower. LONG. Mid-duration bonds offer a safe haven and capital appreciation potential as the yield curve flattens in response to a slowing liquidity cycle. A resurgence of inflation caused by a robust real economy could force the Fed to maintain or raise rates, causing bond yields to spike and prices to fall.
IEF LONG
medium-term
20:49
Mar 05
Mar 05
Monetary Matters
3mo
GOOGL 1ST
AMZN 1ST
CRM 1ST
HCA 1ST
BKD 1ST
▾
Howitt notes that while industrial concentration suppresses some innovation, the current AI boom requires massive capital expenditure and "flexible financial systems" to tolerate losses. He highlights that "Googles and Microsofts" are the ones "going at it" alongside new entrants they often back (OpenAI/Anthropic). In a "Superstar Market," the most productive firms with the deepest capital moats capture the majority of the value. AI is a capital-intensive game where incumbents with massive R&D budgets can endure the "fumbling around" phase of technology adoption that bankrupts smaller players. Long the "Superstar" incumbents who are effectively privatizing the infrastructure of the AI economy. Regulatory breakup (Howitt explicitly mentions antitrust needs to reorient toward preventing innovation suppression) or a "Schiller PE" valuation reset.
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
MSFT LONG
Medium-term
Jack Farley notes that SaaS (Software as a Service) stocks are declining because investors fear AI can "create this software... for a tiny fraction" of the cost. Howitt agrees, citing Kodak's bankruptcy due to digital photography as the historical precedent for this type of "Creative Destruction." If code becomes a commodity produced by Generative AI, the "moat" of traditional SaaS companies (proprietary codebases and high switching costs) erodes. They risk becoming the "hand-loom weavers" or "Kodak" of the AI era—displaced by a cheaper, faster method of production. Avoid legacy SaaS models that rely on seat-based pricing for code that AI can replicate cheaply. AI may serve as a co-pilot that increases SaaS margins rather than replacing them entirely.
CRM AVOID
SNOW AVOID
WDAY AVOID
Long-term
Howitt highlights that as manufacturing jobs disappear (even in China), labor moves to services. He explicitly identifies "elderly care" as a sector with "tremendous potential" due to aging populations in North America, Europe, and China. This is a "Second-Order" AI trade. AI will handle menial data entry (as seen in the Gates/Rwanda example), making human care workers more efficient. The demand is demographic (inevitable), and the supply constraint (labor) is eased by AI productivity tools, improving margins for care facility operators. Long Senior Living (BKD) and Hospital operators (HCA) as beneficiaries of demographic tailwinds + AI efficiency. Government reimbursement rate changes or labor shortages outpacing AI productivity gains.
HCA LONG
BKD LONG
Long-term
Howitt observes that the Shiller PE (CAPE) ratio is currently at levels seen only during the 2000 Dotcom bubble and 1929. High CAPE ratios do not predict an immediate crash, but they are statistically significant predictors of low real returns over the next 10–20 years. The "AI Boom" is real, but the price paid for that growth is historically expensive. Exercise caution with broad passive indexing; returns will likely be compressed compared to the last decade. "Irrational exuberance" can persist longer than solvency (the market could melt up another 50% before correcting).
SPY NEUTRAL
QQQ NEUTRAL
Long-term
Howitt uses Tesla as a case study for the transience of monopolies. Tesla had ~90% market share in EVs, but that lead "only lasted a few years" before being overtaken by Chinese competitors. This illustrates the "Creative Destruction" cycle speed. Being a first-mover (like Tesla in EVs or potentially Nvidia in chips) does not guarantee a permanent monopoly. Investors should watch for rapid market share erosion in dominant tech leaders. Watch for signs of commoditization in EV/AI hardware similar to what happened to Tesla's EV dominance. Tesla re-innovating (Robotaxi/Optimus) to reset the cycle.
TSLA WATCH
Medium-term
00:07
Mar 05
Mar 05
Monetary Matters
3mo
V 1ST
XLE
XLV 1ST
MELI 1ST
GDX 1ST
▾
Tian notes that high-quality businesses with "network effects" (specifically mentioning Visa, Mastercard, and MercadoLibre) have been "caught up in the sell-off" and "de-risking takes everything down with it." The market is indiscriminately selling growth. Investors should distinguish between "too hard" SaaS companies and businesses with entrenched network effects or regulatory moats. MercadoLibre specifically was cited as a high-quality business that "tanked" despite strong fundamentals, offering a dislocation entry. LONG. Continued anti-tech sentiment or specific regulatory crackdowns on payment duopolies.
V LONG
MELI LONG
MA LONG
medium-term
Tian states his model "thinks it's time to take profit in energy" because "there was a lot of pricing going into it" and valuations are stretched relative to earnings growth. While the Iran conflict provides a narrative for oil, the price action had already front-run the event. Unless the war extends beyond the base case of 4-5 weeks, the risk/reward is poor. The model suggests rotating capital from this crowded trade into sectors with better valuations. NEUTRAL (Take Profits/Rotate Out). A prolonged conflict lasting months (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz) would reignite the energy trade.
XLE NEUTRAL
OIH NEUTRAL
short-term
The asset allocation engine is "rotating to healthcare" as it maintains a "cyclical value piece" but adds a "slightly more defensive, slightly less correlated exposure." As the market digests the energy shock and potential volatility, Healthcare offers a defensive buffer with reasonable valuations compared to the "SaaS apocalypse" seen elsewhere. It acts as a ballast in a portfolio transitioning away from pure cyclical energy exposure. LONG. Regulatory changes or political risk in an election year (2026 midterms).
XLV LONG
medium-term
Tian argues that "if gold can even just stay above 5,000... [miners are] way more compelling now than the gold outright." While physical gold has structural tailwinds as a neutral reserve asset, the miners are trading at valuations that imply much lower gold prices. This creates a valuation gap where miners offer significant leverage to the metal's price stability, even without further rallying. LONG. Rising input costs (energy/labor) compressing miner margins despite high gold prices.
GDX LONG
medium-term
In the context of the "Sovereignty" and "Technology Race" themes, Tian highlights "government consulting and tech consulting" as the most interesting sub-sector where valuations are reasonable. As the US moves toward "National Mobilization," the government must implement complex dual-use technologies. However, the government seeks to reduce direct headcount (DOGE efficiency), necessitating heavy reliance on private consultants to execute these tech upgrades. LONG. aggressive government spending cuts (DOGE) that target contractor waste specifically.
LDOS LONG
BAH LONG
long-term
Brazil was a top pick for the year but "got hit on this news" (geopolitical shock). Tian asserts, "I still think over the balance of the year... it still makes sense." The sell-off is viewed as a short-term political/risk adjustment rather than a fundamental break. The core thesis of "EM over DM" and commodity support remains intact once the immediate war panic subsides. LONG (Buy the Dip). Escalation of global conflict driving a sustained flight to the US Dollar, crushing EM currencies.
EWZ LONG
medium-term
The capital cycle score for US Regional Banks was bad for years but has "started to inflect a lot higher" recently. Banks have been cautious (high loan loss provisions), yet ROE has been steadily improving. This divergence—high caution vs. improving returns—signals a classic capital cycle turn where competition is low, and profitability is set to surprise to the upside. LONG. A resurgence of commercial real estate (CRE) defaults or a "higher for longer" rate environment breaking credit quality.
KRE LONG
medium-term
14:00
Mar 01
Mar 01
Monetary Matters
3mo
WPM
FRU
SILJ
ALB 1ST
TFPM
▾
Rule states royalty companies are "better businesses" because they have no capital exposure to cost inflation (CAPEX). He highlights Wheaton's (WPM) recent $4.3B stream deal. The copper industry needs $250B to maintain production but only has $100B in free cash flow. They *must* sell gold/silver by-product streams to fund this gap. This creates a massive pipeline of deals for large royalty companies (FNV, WPM) that Wall Street currently underestimates. LONG large-cap royalty companies. They will capture the "tail" value of long-lived mines (30-40 years) which current DCF models (cutting off at 8-9 years) fail to value. High valuations relative to miners; if interest rates rise significantly, their yield becomes less attractive.
WPM WATCH
TFPM WATCH
FNV WATCH
long-term
Rule owns all three Canadian oil royalty names (Freehold, Prairie Sky, Topaz). He notes Canadian oil stocks trade at "half the real comps" of US peers. Geological runway. The US Permian Basin is ~85% drilled (tier 1 locations), whereas the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is only ~45% drilled. The political risk (Trudeau) is priced in, creating a deep value opportunity. LONG Canadian oil royalties for yield and inventory longevity. Canadian political interference (carbon taxes, caps) or a crash in oil prices.
FRU WATCH
PSK WATCH
TPZ WATCH
medium-term
Rule allocated "about half the money that I received... into the silver stocks." Valuation arbitrage. If silver stays flat (e.g., at $75 in his hypothetical), physical holders make $0. However, miners valued at $45 silver would see a 50% increase in Net Present Value (NPV) as the market reprices them to the higher commodity price. LONG silver miners as a leverage play; they offer upside even if the metal price stagnates, whereas the metal does not. Operational risks (fuel costs, labor strikes) or a collapse in silver prices below the miners' marginal cost of production.
SILJ WATCH
SIL WATCH
medium-term
Rule is "terrified that direct lithium extraction (DLE) will work." If oil majors (Exxon, Chevron) successfully extract lithium from oilfield brines using DLE, lithium becomes a byproduct of oil. This would flood the market with supply, crushing the economics of pure-play lithium miners. AVOID/WATCH the Lithium sector. (Note: He acknowledges Altius bought lithium royalties, but he trusts the manager, not the commodity). DLE technology fails to scale, keeping lithium supply constrained and prices high.
ALB AVOID
LITHIUM AVOID
long-term
Rule notes a valuation disconnect: Large royalty cos (FNV/WPM) trade at ~2x NAV, mid-caps at 1.4x, and juniors (Elemental Altus, Altius, Globex) at ~1x NAV. Either valuation arbitrage closes the gap, or the big companies will acquire the small ones. Specifically, Altius (ALS) is praised as a "natural resources merchant bank" that buys counter-cyclically (e.g., buying lithium royalties when hated). LONG junior royalty companies for M&A potential and repricing. Lower liquidity and higher cost of capital for smaller firms.
ELE WATCH
GMX WATCH
ALS WATCH
medium-term
Rule loved Exxon at $100 but says there is "less to love at 160." Markets overshoot. He expects oil prices (inflated by geopolitical risk) to decline, offering a "second kick at the can" to buy majors at lower valuations. WATCH for a pullback to re-enter. Geopolitical escalation drives oil to $100+, causing XOM to run away to $200+.
XOM NEUTRAL
short-term
Rule explicitly stated, "I sold roughly 80% of my silver in mid to late January." He argues the "coiled spring" energy accumulated from 5 years of underperformance was released in the 2024-2025 rally. The narrative is now fully priced in ("people who refused to buy at $20 call me an idiot for selling at $75"). SHORT/TRIM physical silver exposure tactically for the next 12 months, anticipating a "backside of the hockey stick" correction or stagnation in 2026. A hyper-inflationary event could drive nominal prices higher regardless of technical overextension.
SIVR NEUTRAL
SILVER NEUTRAL
short-term
Rule identifies Agnico Eagle as a top pick, citing "three CEOs in 60 years" and a focus on the "best cost quartile worldwide." In a high-inflation environment, operational efficiency protects margins. Rule prefers "divorcing myself from the financial and operating risk of an inefficient management team" over chasing maximum leverage with lower-quality miners. LONG AEM as the "best of breed" major gold producer. Gold price correction; operational issues in the Abitibi region.
AEM WATCH
long-term
Rule calls Snowline Gold (SGD) a "huge deposit... high grade" and believes it will eventually be bought by a major like Newmont or Agnico. Despite being in the "middle of nowhere" (Yukon), the sheer size (potentially 20M oz) and grade make it a "must-own deposit" for majors facing reserve depletion. LONG SGD as a takeover target. Infrastructure challenges and long timeline to production; likely requires massive capex to build.
SGD WATCH
long-term
Rule states, "I don't have the guts to own it any longer." It is a massive low-grade sulfide deposit. To work, it needs either $5,000 gold or a technological breakthrough in processing. While Eric Sprott is betting on the tech/price, Rule sees the risk/reward as unfavorable compared to other opportunities. AVOID Hycroft Mining due to metallurgical and economic complexity. A massive spike in gold prices or successful new tech implementation would prove this bearish view wrong.
HYMC AVOID
medium-term
21:13
Feb 15
Feb 15
Monetary Matters
3mo
TLT 1ST
FXI
TSM
GOOGL 1ST
META 1ST
▾
Krugman admits "R-star has moved way up" and the 2019 logic that debt doesn't matter (because r < g) no longer holds. "Interest rates are much, much higher... higher than the sort of long run growth rate of the economy." When interest rates exceed the growth rate, debt dynamics become unsustainable. The fiscal deficit is now a "problem" whereas it wasn't before. This structural shift suggests rates will not return to near-zero levels, creating headwinds for long-duration bonds. AVOID long-duration Treasuries as the era of "free money" is over. A severe recession forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively despite the structural issues.
TLT AVOID
medium-term
Krugman argues China is "exporting the demand deficiency via trade surpluses" and predicts China will "run into a wall of tariffs by everybody," specifically noting a coming "big European backlash." China's economic model relies on exports to offset weak domestic consumption. If both the US (already 37% tariffs) and Europe (coming soon) block these exports, Chinese manufacturing and export-heavy equities will suffer severe revenue compression. AVOID Chinese equities, particularly exporters. China successfully pivots to domestic consumption (which Krugman deems necessary but hasn't happened yet).
FXI AVOID
MCHI AVOID
medium-term
Regarding the AI boom, Krugman notes, "There's an awful lot of chips produced in Taiwan... so it may not be as much of a stimulus to the US economy." While the US companies (spenders) are risking capital, the manufacturers of the hardware are the immediate beneficiaries of the cash flow. The "leakage" of US stimulus goes directly to Taiwanese manufacturers. LONG the hardware manufacturers receiving the Capex spend. Geopolitical conflict in Taiwan or a sudden halt in US Hyperscaler Capex.
TSM WATCH
short-term
Krugman compares the current AI spending to the late 1990s Telecom boom. He notes that while the internet was real, "the companies that did the big spending in many cases did not survive." He describes current tech giants as "aging behemoths... spending vast amounts... to dig their moats deeper." The "Hyperscalers" are the ones laying out massive Capex ($500-600B). If this parallels the Telecom boom, the *spenders* of capital are at risk of poor ROI and financial distress, even if the technology (AI) eventually changes the world. AVOID the massive spenders (Hyperscalers) due to risk of capital destruction. AI generates immediate, high-margin revenue that justifies the Capex (unlike the dark fiber glut of the 90s).
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
MSFT AVOID
medium-term
Krugman states the dollar is the "money of monies" and replacing it is harder than imagined. He notes, "The issue is not that the dollar might be replaced by something else, but that the dollar might be replaced by nothing else." Despite fears of weaponization or deficits, there is no alternative (TINA). The Euro is too fragmented, and the RMB has capital controls. Therefore, betting on the dollar's collapse is betting against the structural reality of global finance. LONG USD as the continued global hegemon. A total breakdown of the international order leading to a fragmented, chaotic monetary system (Argentina-style loss of credibility).
USD WATCH
long-term
02:47
Feb 11
Feb 11
Monetary Matters
3mo
ARGT 1ST
STX 1ST
BTC 1ST
BABA 1ST
QQQ
▾
Berg’s "Long Life" portfolio is holding specific international positions: Argentina (ARGT), Trip.com (TCOM), Alibaba (BABA), Shinhan Financial (SHG), and Korea Electric Power (KEP). While bearish on US Beta, Berg identifies technical breakouts in foreign markets that are undervalued or uncorrelated to the US tech bubble. Korea and China are showing "new high" breakouts while US software lags. Long specific international value/growth plays. Global recession or US dollar strength hurting emerging markets.
ARGT LONG
BABA LONG
KEP LONG
TCOM LONG
SHG LONG
medium-term
Berg is long Seagate (STX) due to a technical breakout on a gap, Phinia (PHIN) as a recent add, Constellation Energy (CEG) as an AI-energy play, and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) as a cash proxy. Even in a potential market top, specific stocks with low P/Es or strong technical momentum (gap breakouts) can outperform. Berkshire is held as a defensive "cash alternative" that holds up better in downturns. Long idiosyncratic US equities with strong technical setups. Broad market beta drag if the S&P 500 crashes significantly.
STX LONG
PHIN LONG
CEG LONG
BRK.B LONG
medium-term
Bitcoin peaked on an October 6th cycle date and failed to hold the low on the February 3rd cycle date. Berg argues Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (unlike gold/commodities) and trades purely on sentiment/cycles. The failure to hold the recent cycle low suggests the downtrend is not over. Do not buy; the technicals suggest the low has failed. A sudden shift in liquidity or sentiment could reverse the cycle trend.
BTC AVOID
short-term
Berg’s institutional model generated a sell signal on December 11, 2025, based on a sharp shift in the VXN (Nasdaq VIX). Additionally, the Russell 2000 formed a unique "one-day island reversal" at the January 2026 highs. While the market hasn't collapsed yet, the S&P 500 has gained less than 1.2% since the December signal, which is consistent with historical topping processes. The "island reversal" indicates trapped bulls and a shift in momentum from "broadening" to distribution. Berg is currently ~110% net short across major indices (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) in his institutional portfolio. A rare oversold signal on Feb 5th (VXN up 35% in 3 days) suggests a potential short-term bounce or failed breakdown.
QQQ NEUTRAL
IWM NEUTRAL
SPY NEUTRAL
medium-term
Gold hit a "climax top" in late January 2026 with record volume and gaps. Fundamentally, Berg notes Gold is at an all-time high relative to CPI, Oil, and other commodities, implying it has detached from inflation hedging. Historically, when Gold disconnects from commodities/CPI this drastically (like in 1980), it enters a multi-year bear market. Refiners are reportedly turning away silver scrap due to oversupply, contradicting the "shortage" narrative. Berg sold calls and initiated short positions, expecting a significant correction or bear market. Geopolitical shocks or currency debasement could reignite the rally.
SLV NEUTRAL
GLD NEUTRAL
long-term
When shown charts of Software ETFs (IGV) and majors like Adobe (ADBE) and ServiceNow (NOW), Berg describes them as "dogs" with "rolling tops" and "distribution volume." Despite strong earnings, these stocks are falling or stagnating. When price action diverges negatively from earnings (good news, bad price), it indicates the "market knows more than the earnings," likely signaling obsolescence or valuation compression. Avoid or Short the software sector. A rotation back into software if hardware/semis overheat.
IGV AVOID
NOW AVOID
CRM AVOID
ADBE AVOID
medium-term
The Semiconductor index gapped up into its high on January 29th, and its first down day coincided exactly with a "cycle date" (January 30th). Gaps into highs are often exhaustion signals (climax tops). When combined with a cycle turn date, it suggests the momentum has broken. Berg shorted this sector immediately following the cycle peak. Short the semiconductor sector ETF. Continued AI mania could force a retest of highs; Berg admits he may cover if short-term strength persists.
SOXX NEUTRAL
short-term
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