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19:50
Apr 15
Apr 15
13:04
Apr 14
Apr 14
IWM
YOU
FWRG
SQ
ZM
▾
Bullish on small and mid-cap stocks.
Valuation gaps between small/mid-caps and large caps have created a massive dislocation, and with strong tax refunds offsetting oil price impacts, the consumer is in fine shape, making smaller caps attractive.
IWM LONG
Bullish on Clear Secure due to travel.
Clear Secure is an identity platform benefiting from strong consumer travel trends (TSA throughput at record highs) and is expanding into enterprise, making it more than just an airport business.
YOU LONG
Bullish on First Watch restaurant chain.
First Watch is a fast-growing restaurant chain that is comping positive in a concerned consumer environment, skews affluent (benefiting from K-shaped economy), and is executing well despite valuation pressure.
FWRG LONG
Bullish on Block due to acceleration and AI.
Block has refocused its business, flattened the organization, and is infusing AI. Its multiple businesses (Square, Cash App, Afterpay) are accelerating, showing operating leverage, and it has a strong cash position. The stock is cheap at low teens multiple, and inflation helps point-of-sale providers.
SQ LONG
Bullish on Zoom as a platform company.
Zoom has transitioned from a single product to a platform (Zoom Phone, contact center, team chat) with a strong balance sheet (cash, no debt) and a valuable stake in Anthropic. Growth is accelerating, and it is winning in Office 365 accounts. Valuation is attractive at low teens free cash flow multiple.
ZM LONG
Bullish on Omnicell due to refresh cycle.
Omnicell is a duopoly in medication management with a 10-year refresh cycle for its medication robot cabinets. It has sole source contracts, is moving towards recurring revenue, and is benefiting from automation in healthcare to reduce costs, errors, and waste.
OMCL LONG
Bullish on Zillow's multiple revenue streams.
Zillow has multiple revenue streams (lead generation, rentals, mortgage, payments) and is a top internet asset with high traffic but undervalued. It is growing mid-teens even in a flat housing market and is using AI to enhance its offerings. The rental business is growing quickly, and the company is expanding margins.
Z LONG
Bullish on Airbnb's growth and experiences.
Airbnb is reaccelerating growth, has big events this year, and its experiences tab is resonating. It is building a super app within travel and also owns HotelTonight. The company is benefiting from the experience economy and has the ability to spin up new products quickly.
ABNB LONG
Bullish on Blackstone due to valuation.
Blackstone's valuation has compressed dramatically, presenting an opportunistic buy in the asset management space. The firm is a leader in private equity, private debt, and real estate, and the current valuation does not reflect its long-term prospects.
BX LONG
Watching AI chip stocks for correction.
The AI chip and ecosystem companies (like Nvidia, AMD, ARM, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are transformative but may be overvalued in the short term. Waiting for a better entry point after a potential correction and more clarity on which companies are actually winning.
NVDA WATCH
AMD WATCH
ARM WATCH
META WATCH
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
MSFT WATCH
13:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
XLK
▾
Ben Topor
Founder and Managing Partner, Titan Capital Partners
medium-term to long-term, as software adoption and AI integration are secular trends that will play out over years.
Software companies have experienced a significant valuation reduction, with median multiples around 4x, the lowest in the last five years, while software budgets continue to grow. Low valuations provide a favorable entry point for investors, coupled with the ongoing digitization of enterprises and the enduring fundamental value of software across eight industry types. LONG because the current valuation environment offers a prime opportunity to invest in software companies with long-term growth prospects, despite expensive niches like AI and cybersecurity. A correction in overvalued AI and cybersecurity segments could spill over; broader economic downturns may further pressure software spending or valuations.
XLK LONG
13:01
Apr 07
Apr 07
EMB
CHIR
▾
The speaker states EM debt indices have "done more damage to emerging market investors than any idiosyncratic event," citing examples where they forced ownership of Argentina pre-default (18% weight) and Russia/Ukraine pre-war. Index construction (often market-cap weighted) over-allocates to the most indebted or largest debt stock countries, conflating size with risk. Mandating benchmark neutrality or low tracking error forces low-conviction ownership and creates vintage risk. AVOID because a passive, index-replicating approach is a "very low conviction approach" that systematically exposes investors to concentrated, predictable risks and misses the alpha from active underwriting and avoidance. An index-led rally in a heavily weighted, risky country could cause short-term underperformance for an active manager avoiding it.
EMB AVOID
The speaker identifies a select few names (5-10 out of 50+) within the distressed China property sector as presenting asymmetry, where bonds at ~5 cents could have a path to 12-18 cents through restructuring. This is true "opportunistic/distressed" investing: price is far below any plausible restructuring value, creating a call option. Alpha comes from primary research, assessing borrower willingness to restructure, and evaluating remaining viable assets/business lines. WATCH because this is a high-resolution, bottom-up hunt for specific bonds with a clear catalyst (restructuring), not a broad sector call. It requires intensive credit work to identify the few names with a cooperative debtor and executable path. Restructurings fail or are less favorable than modeled. Liquidity is poor. Broader sector or regulatory headwinds prevent recovery.
CHIR WATCH
12:17
Apr 04
Apr 04
INSW
FRO
DHT
▾
Ed Finley-Richardson
Shipping Expert, Author of Misadventures in Shipping Substack
short-term to medium-term (next quarter earnings).
Ed's vessel-by-vessel tracking showed International Seaways' fleet of 29 MR tankers is heavily weighted to the US Gulf, the basin with the highest current spot rates. The US Gulf is experiencing record MR rates due to the Hormuz closure. Companies with concentrated exposure there will capture disproportionate earnings. LONG because this positioning should lead to significant earnings beats, and the stock has historically traded at a discount to peers. A rapid, orderly resolution in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly normalize rates.
INSW LONG
Ed Finley-Richardson
Shipping Expert, Author of Misadventures in Shipping Substack
medium-term to long-term.
Ed called Frontline the "go-to" tanker name, praising its governance under John Fredriksen, diversified fleet (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax), and history of large dividends. As a liquid, consensus bellwether, Frontline offers beta exposure to the tanker sector. Its strong management and balance sheet make it a core holding. LONG as a high-quality, liquid way to gain general tanker market exposure with a proven capital allocator. A prolonged Hormuz closure specifically hurts its VLCC segment in the near term.
FRO LONG
Ed Finley-Richardson
Shipping Expert, Author of Misadventures in Shipping Substack
medium-term to long-term.
Ed praised DHT's top-tier governance, calling it a pure-play VLCC operator he would trust in a retirement account for its reliability and 100% earnings payout. While VLCCs are currently disadvantaged, DHT's exceptional quality and commitment to shareholders make it a staple. A market recovery post-disruption or from Sinaore's influence would benefit it directly. LONG as a high-conviction, lower-beta holding for investors prioritizing management quality and predictable returns. The VLCC market remains oversupplied with vessels if Middle Eastern cargoes stay offline.
DHT LONG
15:10
Apr 01
Apr 01
WTI
MU
XLE
XLK
▾
Argues that even if oil goes to $200/barrel, headline CPI would peak around 6%, not 9% as in 2022, due to demand destruction and lack of excess consumer savings. High oil prices directly sap household spending power (e.g., $100 oil costs an extra ~$1,960/household), compressing demand for core goods/services and limiting secondary inflationary effects. The Fed should look through this type of commodity shock as its inflationary impact is capped and transient, but the demand destruction necessitates close monitoring of growth. A simultaneous large positive demand shock (e.g., massive defense spending) combined with the supply shock could reignite broader inflation, mimicking the 1970s.
WTI WATCH
States Micron is diverting production from consumer electronics to meet AI data center demand, contributing to a 100-200% increase in memory chip prices. The AI-driven shortage has "no end in sight" and no marginal producers, unlike oil, making this a persistent supply shock. Only half of the estimated price shock has passed through to consumer prices so far. Continued, inelastic demand for AI memory chips should support sustained pricing power and revenue for producers like Micron. An unexpected collapse in AI infrastructure investment demand.
MU LONG
States that if oil stays at ~$116, US production will rise from 13 to 17-18 million barrels per day within ~9 months. Also notes that war expansion (a driver of $150-$200 oil) would necessitate higher defense spending. Higher oil prices incentivize increased domestic production (adding to GDP), and a war scenario would spur defense manufacturing, which requires commodities. The energy sector is positioned for growth in both production volume and, in a geopolitical escalation scenario, supported demand from the linked defense industrial expansion. A rapid de-escalation of conflict leading to a swift collapse in oil prices.
XLE LONG
Identifies the "computer software and accessories" PCE category as a primary, persistent inflation driver, fueled by an AI-driven memory chip shortage. AI data center buildout is diverting chip supply from consumer markets, causing severe price inflation (100-200%) with no near-term alternative suppliers. This represents a durable cost-push inflation shock within technology services that could add ~0.5 ppt to core PCE, warranting close monitoring for margin pressure and pricing power. A sudden, sharp drop in demand for AI computing infrastructure.
XLK WATCH
13:01
Mar 31
Mar 31
18:44
Mar 29
Mar 29
BIZD
BX
ARES
APO
▾
Leyla explicitly states she prefers public BDCs "by far" over private BDCs because she can "enter at a price that they deem good," specifically at a discount to NAV (e.g., 80 cents on the dollar). Public BDCs trade on an exchange, allowing investors to buy at a market-determined discount, whereas private BDCs redeem at NAV. The discount represents an immediate potential return if it closes. Furthermore, public BDCs do not face the structural liquidity pressure of meeting quarterly investor redemptions, unlike private funds. LONG because the discount to NAV offers a clear valuation gap, and the structure avoids the redemption-driven liquidity management issues currently plaguing private funds. The NAV of the BDC could be inaccurate or decline. The discount may persist or widen if market sentiment worsens further.
BIZD LONG
Leyla states she is "watching the equity of the asset managers" like Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo, noting that sentiment is very negative and fee revenue is likely to decline as assets under management in their semi-liquid funds shrink due to outflows. These alternative asset managers' revenues are tied to fees from capital managed. The current redemption crisis in their semi-liquid private credit funds threatens to shrink that asset base. Extreme negative sentiment may have created a potential opportunity. WATCH because the negative catalyst (fee pressure) is clear and present, but extreme pessimism may have created a future entry point. It is not yet a buy signal. Outflows could be more severe and prolonged than expected, leading to greater fee erosion. The equity may not be cheap enough to compensate for the fundamental pressure.
BX WATCH
ARES WATCH
APO WATCH
16:22
Mar 27
Mar 27
EMLC
EMB
▾
Lupin said Brazilian real rates are still very high (nominal rates at 15%), the central bank is anchored, and it has room to cut, making local currency bonds attractive, especially compared to other EMs. Brazil is a commodity exporter sheltered from Middle East shocks, with high real rates providing carry and potential for easing cycles, supported by credible monetary policy. LONG due to high yields, strong fundamentals, and relative safety in the current geopolitical environment. Central bank fails to anchor inflation, geopolitical spillovers affect all EM, or domestic political issues arise.
EMLC LONG
Lupin said duration is going to be hard, and being long duration is a difficult trade due to stagflationary impacts from the oil price shock, with EM central banks likely needing to hike rates. In a stagflationary environment, inflation shocks may force EM central banks to hike more than priced in to anchor second-round effects, leading to bond price declines. AVOID long duration positions in EM bonds as the risk-reward is unfavorable. The Middle East war ends quickly, reducing inflationary pressures and allowing central banks to pause or cut rates.
EMB AVOID
16:34
Mar 25
Mar 25
XLE
▾
Liz Ann Sonders explicitly states that the energy sector is in a "high neutral to somewhat favorable" range for a 6-12 month time horizon, but cautions that the parabolic move warrants care. The sector has outperformed due to the spike in oil prices from the war in Iran, but such rapid appreciation increases short-term risk of volatility or correction. WATCH the energy sector for potential entry points or risks, as the fundamental outlook is positive but price action is extended, making it attractive for medium-term horizons but risky for traders. A quick resolution to the war or a sharp drop in oil prices could lead to significant downside in the sector.
XLE WATCH
17:20
Mar 22
Mar 22
URA
WEAT
CORN
▾
Speaker stated urea prices have already doubled and could "blow right through" the all-time high of over $900 per ton. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed 13.5 million tons of annual urea exports with no quick replacement. There are no global stockpiles, and new production takes years to build. The market must balance via demand destruction, requiring significantly higher prices to kill enough consumption. The Strait reopens quickly, or demand destruction is more immediate and severe than anticipated.
URA LONG
Speaker identified wheat as the commodity he is "watching most closely" and said it could be "the one that starts to take the hits first." Non-US countries have more wheat-dominant agricultural systems and may be less able to secure limited fertilizer supplies, leading to potential yield reductions before other crops. Global wheat supply is most immediately at risk from the fertilizer shortage, which should be price supportive. Major wheat producers are unaffected by the supply crunch, or a demand collapse offsets the supply threat.
WEAT LONG
Speaker said if farmers facing high fertilizer costs switch from corn to soybeans at the last minute, it would be "very bullish on corn" due to a drop in expected supply. Current fertilizer economics make corn planting unprofitable. If farmers react by reducing corn acreage just before or during planting, supply forecasts would drop sharply. The high risk of acreage loss creates asymmetric upside potential for corn prices. Farmers absorb the high input costs, government subsidies offset the pain, or the planting mix remains unchanged.
CORN LONG
03:32
Mar 20
Mar 20
BRN
XLE
BRENT
WTI
▾
The speaker stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and optimistic rerouting efforts max out, the market would need to shed ~15 mb/d of demand, leading to prices of $250-$300/bbl for Brent. He said this would "hit all-time highs on an inflation-adjusted basis almost guaranteed." The supply shock (20 mb/d disrupted, 9 mb/d shut in) is historically unprecedented and too large for temporary offsets (SPR, oil-on-water) to cover for long. The only mechanism to destroy sufficient demand is an extreme price spike. WATCH because the thesis outlines a catastrophic price surge contingent on the continuation of the geopolitical stalemate. The direction is profoundly bullish, but the investment view is framed as a monitoring scenario for a potential macroeconomic depression trigger. Political de-escalation, most likely a unilateral declaration of victory/ceasefire by President Trump, which the speaker believes is the necessary endgame.
BRN WATCH
The speaker detailed that refined products, specifically middle distillates (diesel, jet fuel), are experiencing acute tightness ahead of crude. Jet fuel in Singapore spiked over $200/bbl, and diesel cracks are rising sharply due to Asian refinery run cuts and the loss of Middle East diesel exports to Europe. The supply shock immediately impacts product markets because refiners are the ultimate consumers of crude. Asian refiners are cutting runs preemptively to extend feedstock runway, directly reducing product output. The Middle East was a key diesel supplier to Europe post-Russia sanctions. WATCH because the refined product complex is the leading edge of the physical crisis. Extreme cracks and prices signal severe market stress and will be the primary vector for demand destruction and economic damage before crude prices potentially reach their peak. A swift geopolitical resolution that reopens the Strait before global product inventories are critically depleted.
XLE WATCH
The speaker discussed how the crisis creates a geographic price shock wave, currently making Brent (Atlantic basin) cheaper than Middle Eastern crudes for Asian buyers. He also stated that US trade restrictions (e.g., product export bans) could lead to "Brent at $200 and WTI at $70." The arbitrage to move barrels from the US Gulf to Asia takes time and cost. If the US imposes export restrictions to try to lower domestic prices, it would isolate the WTI market, causing a massive local glut and a blow-out of the Brent-WTI spread. WATCH for a potential massive widening of the Brent-WTI spread. The direction implies relative weakness for WTI vs. Brent if US policy turns interventionist, creating a specific cross-commodity trade opportunity. The US refrains from implementing export restrictions, allowing the global market to balance more normally, which would keep the spread more in line with traditional transportation costs.
BRENT WATCH
WTI WATCH
00:18
Mar 19
Mar 19
TLT
▾
Speaker explicitly advocates being "short stocks and bonds" as a package trade. He notes bond yields have already risen as easing expectations unwound, but sees further pressure. The inflationary impulse from the oil shock will keep the Fed on hold. Persistently high inflation (PCE likely mid-3s vs. Fed's 2.7% forecast) risks unanchoring medium-term expectations, forcing long-end yields higher. With 5-year inflation expectations at 2.65% and room to move 75 bps higher, bond yields are likely to rise, creating a compelling short. The oil shock triggers an immediate, severe recession that forces the Fed to cut rates despite high inflation.
TLT SHORT
12:30
Mar 17
Mar 17
15:43
Mar 16
Mar 16
PPLT
CPER
FCX
SCCO
SHY
▾
Hundreds years of patterns of platinum, gold, silver, and platinum cycles going and usually gold is the one that goes first and then gold mining stocks tend to lag... silver caught up to gold... and platinum goes afterwards. So the cycle actually it's very natural to platinum cycle right now to start. Precious metals move in sequential, multi-decade cycles rather than moving perfectly in tandem. Because gold and silver have already experienced massive breakouts, capital will naturally rotate into platinum as a historical store-of-value catch-up trade, regardless of near-term industrial EV demand. Long platinum to capture the delayed, cyclical rotation of capital within the precious metals complex. Industrial demand for platinum (auto catalysts) drops faster than the monetary/store-of-value premium can compensate, keeping prices suppressed.
PPLT LONG
Compute power consumption will grow so quickly that people still do not comprehend what actually where the charts on compute power consumption actually lead... I don't think there's enough copper on the planet to so it's AI demand story. The exponential growth of AI requires a massive buildout of data centers and electrical grid infrastructure. Because electricity generation and transmission are highly copper-intensive, this will create a structural, physical supply deficit that cannot be easily solved by current mining output. Long copper and major copper miners to capitalize on the physical infrastructure bottleneck created by the AI energy boom. AI adoption slows down, or technological breakthroughs allow for significantly more energy-efficient compute, reducing the need for grid expansion.
CPER LONG
FCX LONG
SCCO LONG
We're having suddenly severe job losses start and we're having deflation across the board and job losses. They have no choice but by start cutting rates. AI will permanently eliminate entire sectors of white-collar economic activity (legal, medical consulting, basic coding), causing a severe deflationary shock. To combat this unprecedented structural unemployment, the Federal Reserve will be forced to aggressively cut short-to-medium term interest rates back toward zero. Long short and intermediate-duration US Treasuries to front-run the inevitable Fed easing cycle triggered by AI-induced job displacement. AI productivity gains create enough new economic growth to offset job losses, keeping inflation sticky and preventing the Fed from cutting rates to zero.
SHY LONG
IEF LONG
I'm picturing this scenario of a wall of ocean of fiscal stimulus in two years and then I'm not seeing necessarily rates being low five years from now. While the front-end of the yield curve will drop due to immediate deflationary job losses, the government will eventually respond to mass unemployment with extreme deficit spending and Universal Basic Income. This massive fiscal injection will reignite inflation, causing long-dated bond yields to rise and steepening the yield curve. Avoid long-duration US Treasuries because future multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus packages will destroy the value of long-term government debt. The deflationary impact of AI is so overwhelming that even massive government stimulus cannot generate inflation, causing long-end bonds to rally alongside the front-end.
TLT AVOID
If BOJ raises interest rates that will necessarily lead to stronger yen. But if they don't raise rates then the elongated bonds which yield like three and a half percent will continue making money. So that's kind of a perfect trade lock. Japan offers an asymmetric, dominant macro setup. The Yen is historically undervalued. If the Bank of Japan hikes rates to fight local inflation, the currency will appreciate sharply. If they do nothing, investors still earn a positive carry on Japanese bonds because domestic funding costs remain at zero. Long the Japanese Yen as a high-probability macro trade with strong causality between potential rate hikes and currency appreciation. The BOJ refuses to hike rates while the US Federal Reserve keeps US rates elevated, causing the interest rate differential to widen and the Yen to depreciate further.
FXY LONG
The way to get into emerging markets is after they blow up, not before... I'm cautious about emerging markets when they're already performing well. Emerging market currencies (like the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and Turkish Lira) have provided strong carry trade returns for several years. Historically, these trades are prone to sudden, devastating drawdowns. Entering now is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller; it is safer to wait for a systemic crisis to reset valuations before allocating capital. Avoid emerging market currency and debt carry trades as they are late in their cycle and highly vulnerable to a sudden macro shock. Emerging markets remain stable and continue to pay high yields, resulting in significant missed income for those sitting on the sidelines.
CEW AVOID
EMB AVOID
14:40
Mar 13
Mar 13
XLE
XOM
CVX
BASFY
DOW
▾
"If it lasts for a month or two or three... the prices could get to $150 plus for a long time... The United States of course because of the shale oil and gas revolution... is self-sufficient in oil and gas. So actually as a country it's going to be richer as a result of the war if the oil price and gas prices go up." A Middle East conflict that disrupts the Strait of Hormuz will cause a massive global supply shock. Because US energy producers operate outside this conflict zone and have abundant domestic reserves, they will capture the massive upside of $150+ oil without suffering the physical disruptions or geopolitical risks of Middle Eastern producers. LONG US-based energy producers and broad US energy sector ETFs, as they are the direct beneficiaries of a geopolitical risk premium and structural US energy independence. The conflict de-escalates quickly, or the US government imposes severe windfall taxes and export bans that cap the upside for domestic producers.
XLE LONG
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
"Steel will never be I think truly competitive in Europe again and chemicals particularly petrochemicals... Europe is not a doesn't have a comparative advantage in producing this stuff and it is going to move elsewhere." European heavy industry relies heavily on imported energy. Without cheap Russian gas or abundant domestic fossil fuels, European steelmakers (like ArcelorMittal) and chemical giants (like BASF) face structurally higher input costs than their global peers. This will lead to permanent margin compression, forced capacity shutdowns, and costly relocations. SHORT (or AVOID) European heavy industrials, specifically in the steel and petrochemical sectors, as their core geographic footprint is fundamentally uncompetitive in the new global energy reality. European governments could implement massive, sustained subsidies or strict protectionist tariffs (like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) that artificially prop up domestic heavy industry margins.
BASFY SHORT
"Highly energy-intensive industries will not be located in Europe. They're going to be located where there are primary energy resources which are much cheaper and those are basically areas with sun and areas with lots and lots of fossil fuels, which is probably means the United States and the Arab world." If European petrochemical production is structurally dead, global market share will shift to regions with cheap, abundant primary energy. US-based chemical manufacturers benefit from the domestic shale gas advantage (cheap natural gas liquids for feedstocks), giving them a massive, sustainable cost advantage over international competitors. LONG US-based petrochemical and energy-intensive industrial companies, as they will capture the market share abandoned by de-industrializing European peers. A global recession could crush overall demand for chemicals and plastics, outweighing the geographic cost advantage.
DOW LONG
LYB LONG
"We all feel actually we must become more energy independent as far as we can and that means going for nuclear energy and renewables... whether we can move to a fully renewable grid effectively... it will require enormous amounts of battery storage and that's a major issue." The geopolitical vulnerability of importing fossil fuels is forcing Europe and China to aggressively build out wind and solar. Because these sources are intermittent, the grid cannot function without utility-scale battery storage. Companies that provide grid-scale energy storage and broad clean energy infrastructure will see massive, state-sponsored demand as a matter of national security. LONG utility-scale battery storage providers and broad clean energy infrastructure funds, as they are the mandatory bottleneck for the global energy transition. High interest rates make capital-intensive renewable and storage projects difficult to finance, potentially slowing the pace of the transition.
ICLN LONG
19:44
Mar 11
Mar 11
XOM
CVX
OXY
SOYB
SPY
▾
"Now, of course, the oil companies, Exxon, are going to be very happy. Russia is going to be very happy... Exxon successfully pushed back against those efforts [windfall taxes] and they will do the same if we try that today." The war with Iran is causing a real, physical disruption to global oil supplies, driving prices above $100. Major US oil producers will capture massive windfall profits from this supply shock, and historical precedent suggests they will successfully lobby against any government attempts to tax these excess margins. LONG. US energy majors are perfectly positioned to benefit from soaring crude prices while remaining insulated from domestic windfall taxes. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global recession that destroys baseline oil demand.
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
OXY LONG
"China has committed to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028... At the same time, the EPA has proposed increasing biomass-based diesel mandates by as much as 67% for 2026, and soybean oil is the leading domestic feed stock." Soybeans are benefiting from a dual-demand shock: guaranteed international trade flows (China) and domestic regulatory tailwinds (EPA renewable diesel mandates). This structural demand will outpace supply, driving up the underlying commodity price. LONG. The Teucrium Soybean Fund provides direct exposure to a commodity with legally and geopolitically mandated demand growth. Changes in EPA regulations, breakdown of the US-China bilateral trade framework, or adverse weather patterns affecting crop yields.
SOYB LONG
"We are facing a risk of stagflation, prices going up first because of the tariffs, now because of the war. And we are already having slow growth, the destruction of 92,000 jobs last month." The combination of an oil shock, a food shock, and a tariff shock is simultaneously driving up input costs for corporations while crushing consumer purchasing power. This toxic macro environment (stagflation) will lead to severe earnings compression across broad equities. SHORT. Broad market indices are vulnerable to a significant rerating as inflation remains sticky and economic growth stalls. The Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates to stimulate the economy, or AI-driven productivity gains offset the inflationary pressures.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
"I think that there is a significant probability that we're experiencing an AI bubble and the breaking of that bubble itself will have significant macroeconomic consequences... each of them believes they will be the monopoly... if there's enough competition they won't be making monopoly profits." Mega-cap tech companies are engaging in an unsustainable capex arms race to build AI data centers. Because competition will prevent any single company from extracting monopoly rents, the return on invested capital (ROIC) will severely disappoint, leading to a collapse in their elevated valuation multiples. AVOID. The underlying economics of the AI infrastructure build-out do not support current valuations, making the sector highly susceptible to a bubble burst. AI adoption accelerates faster than expected, creating new high-margin revenue streams that justify the massive capital expenditures.
NVDA AVOID
MSFT AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
"We want to be free from Russian invasion. So, we need to have a defense... Russia is an enemy that exists and they don't believe in democracy. We need to protect ourselves." The escalating geopolitical fragmentation, highlighted by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, guarantees that Western governments will be forced to maintain or expand defense budgets regardless of domestic economic weakness. LONG. Prime defense contractors offer a safe haven with visible, government-backed revenue streams during periods of global instability. A sweeping global peace initiative or severe US fiscal austerity measures that force cuts to the defense budget.
LMT LONG
RTX LONG
GD LONG
19:50
Mar 10
Mar 10
QQQ
DBC
XLE
XLU
XLP
▾
You got to trim your equity exposure. You got to get out of credits... and then in industry groups within the market I would be out of technology until the next time. The ratio of equity market capitalization to global liquidity is stretched to 2008 levels. Without expanding liquidity to support high valuation multiples, long-duration assets like technology stocks will derate. AVOID. The liquidity cycle no longer supports the high multiples required to sustain the tech sector's outperformance. Massive AI-driven productivity gains could generate enough organic earnings growth to offset the contraction in valuation multiples caused by tightening liquidity.
QQQ AVOID
XLK AVOID
Around the peak, you would typically see commodity markets exploding upwards... resource stocks, energy stocks outperforming, beginning to see some evidence of utilities beginning to outperform and investors starting to reach towards stable demand consumer staple stocks. As the global liquidity cycle rolls over from speculation to a defensive posture, capital rotates out of long-duration growth assets and into cyclical value (energy/commodities) and defensive value (utilities/staples) that offer stable cash flows. LONG. Late-cycle and defensive sectors historically outperform as liquidity momentum slows and the real economy absorbs capital away from financial markets. A sudden re-acceleration of central bank quantitative easing could cause growth and tech stocks to resume their market leadership, leaving defensive sectors behind.
DBC LONG
XLE LONG
XLU LONG
XLP LONG
China will be the only bull market that I would be convinced of this year... The thing to look at are things like Chinese technology stocks. The People's Bank of China is injecting massive amounts of liquidity (estimated at 7 trillion yuan) to bail out its debt and real estate crisis. Because of capital controls, this liquidity is trapped domestically and will flow into Chinese risk assets. LONG. China's liquidity cycle is expanding and completely decoupled from the tightening Western cycle, providing a strong macro tailwind for Chinese equities. Geopolitical tensions, new US tariffs, or a failure of the PBOC's stimulus to restore domestic confidence could derail the equity rally.
FXI LONG
KWEB LONG
As that money comes into the system, it's going into risk assets and is going into gold as a monetary inflation hedge. So, that line likely is going higher. Gold has decoupled from US real interest rates and is now being driven by Asian liquidity. As the PBOC prints money, Chinese citizens and institutions are buying gold to hedge against domestic monetary debasement. LONG. The marginal pricer of gold is now Eastern liquidity, meaning PBOC easing will continue to drive gold higher regardless of what the US Federal Reserve does. If China successfully stabilizes its real estate market and economy, domestic capital might rotate out of gold and back into property or other local assets.
GLD LONG
The trend in that black line is still downwards and we're likely to see much smaller peaks in liquidity... and that would not be great for Bitcoin through this period. Bitcoin is the most liquidity-sensitive asset in the world. With global liquidity momentum slowing, Bitcoin will face near-term headwinds, but significant pullbacks (one standard deviation below trend) offer strategic entry points. WATCH. Wait for the liquidity cycle to bottom or for Bitcoin to reach deep value territory before accumulating for the next cycle. An unexpected pivot to aggressive quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could cause Bitcoin to surge before reaching the targeted pullback levels.
BTC WATCH
If the bond markets face declining liquidity then they're going to act with their feet and basically yields will start to come down. So, I think you could see potentially here the risk of a bullish flattening. Consensus is positioned for a steepening yield curve, but term premiums are actually peaking. As liquidity tightens and markets move to a risk-off stance, investors will seek the safety of government bonds, driving mid-duration yields lower. LONG. Mid-duration bonds offer a safe haven and capital appreciation potential as the yield curve flattens in response to a slowing liquidity cycle. A resurgence of inflation caused by a robust real economy could force the Fed to maintain or raise rates, causing bond yields to spike and prices to fall.
IEF LONG
I think the second half year may surprise us in terms of some firmness in the dollar. If we're moving to a risk-off environment, investors will like this comfort of US safe assets. While the US administration may try to talk the dollar down in the near term, structural capital outflows from Asia into the US and a global flight to safety later in the year will overwhelm political rhetoric. LONG. The US dollar will benefit from its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset when the global liquidity downturn triggers broader market turbulence. Coordinated global central bank intervention to weaken the dollar, or a massive acceleration in US debt monetization, could permanently impair the dollar's safe-haven appeal.
UUP LONG
I would be probably beginning to trim some financial holdings on the basis that financials get a lot of their gas from steeper yield curves and so if that's we're near the end of that, that's something to bear in mind. Banks and financial institutions rely on a steep yield curve to expand their net interest margins (borrowing short and lending long). A flattening yield curve removes this core profitability engine. AVOID. The macroeconomic environment is shifting away from the steepening curve that financials need to outperform. If the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts short-term rates while long-term rates remain anchored by heavy Treasury issuance, the curve could steepen, boosting financial stocks.
XLF AVOID
20:49
Mar 05
Mar 05
MSFT
GOOGL
AMZN
CRM
WDAY
▾
Howitt notes that while industrial concentration suppresses some innovation, the current AI boom requires massive capital expenditure and "flexible financial systems" to tolerate losses. He highlights that "Googles and Microsofts" are the ones "going at it" alongside new entrants they often back (OpenAI/Anthropic). In a "Superstar Market," the most productive firms with the deepest capital moats capture the majority of the value. AI is a capital-intensive game where incumbents with massive R&D budgets can endure the "fumbling around" phase of technology adoption that bankrupts smaller players. Long the "Superstar" incumbents who are effectively privatizing the infrastructure of the AI economy. Regulatory breakup (Howitt explicitly mentions antitrust needs to reorient toward preventing innovation suppression) or a "Schiller PE" valuation reset.
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
Jack Farley notes that SaaS (Software as a Service) stocks are declining because investors fear AI can "create this software... for a tiny fraction" of the cost. Howitt agrees, citing Kodak's bankruptcy due to digital photography as the historical precedent for this type of "Creative Destruction." If code becomes a commodity produced by Generative AI, the "moat" of traditional SaaS companies (proprietary codebases and high switching costs) erodes. They risk becoming the "hand-loom weavers" or "Kodak" of the AI era—displaced by a cheaper, faster method of production. Avoid legacy SaaS models that rely on seat-based pricing for code that AI can replicate cheaply. AI may serve as a co-pilot that increases SaaS margins rather than replacing them entirely.
CRM AVOID
WDAY AVOID
SNOW AVOID
Howitt highlights that as manufacturing jobs disappear (even in China), labor moves to services. He explicitly identifies "elderly care" as a sector with "tremendous potential" due to aging populations in North America, Europe, and China. This is a "Second-Order" AI trade. AI will handle menial data entry (as seen in the Gates/Rwanda example), making human care workers more efficient. The demand is demographic (inevitable), and the supply constraint (labor) is eased by AI productivity tools, improving margins for care facility operators. Long Senior Living (BKD) and Hospital operators (HCA) as beneficiaries of demographic tailwinds + AI efficiency. Government reimbursement rate changes or labor shortages outpacing AI productivity gains.
BKD LONG
HCA LONG
Howitt observes that the Shiller PE (CAPE) ratio is currently at levels seen only during the 2000 Dotcom bubble and 1929. High CAPE ratios do not predict an immediate crash, but they are statistically significant predictors of low real returns over the next 10–20 years. The "AI Boom" is real, but the price paid for that growth is historically expensive. Exercise caution with broad passive indexing; returns will likely be compressed compared to the last decade. "Irrational exuberance" can persist longer than solvency (the market could melt up another 50% before correcting).
SPY NEUTRAL
QQQ NEUTRAL
Howitt uses Tesla as a case study for the transience of monopolies. Tesla had ~90% market share in EVs, but that lead "only lasted a few years" before being overtaken by Chinese competitors. This illustrates the "Creative Destruction" cycle speed. Being a first-mover (like Tesla in EVs or potentially Nvidia in chips) does not guarantee a permanent monopoly. Investors should watch for rapid market share erosion in dominant tech leaders. Watch for signs of commoditization in EV/AI hardware similar to what happened to Tesla's EV dominance. Tesla re-innovating (Robotaxi/Optimus) to reset the cycle.
TSLA WATCH
00:07
Mar 05
Mar 05
XLE
OIH
XLV
KRE
V
▾
Tian states his model "thinks it's time to take profit in energy" because "there was a lot of pricing going into it" and valuations are stretched relative to earnings growth. While the Iran conflict provides a narrative for oil, the price action had already front-run the event. Unless the war extends beyond the base case of 4-5 weeks, the risk/reward is poor. The model suggests rotating capital from this crowded trade into sectors with better valuations. NEUTRAL (Take Profits/Rotate Out). A prolonged conflict lasting months (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz) would reignite the energy trade.
XLE NEUTRAL
OIH NEUTRAL
The asset allocation engine is "rotating to healthcare" as it maintains a "cyclical value piece" but adds a "slightly more defensive, slightly less correlated exposure." As the market digests the energy shock and potential volatility, Healthcare offers a defensive buffer with reasonable valuations compared to the "SaaS apocalypse" seen elsewhere. It acts as a ballast in a portfolio transitioning away from pure cyclical energy exposure. LONG. Regulatory changes or political risk in an election year (2026 midterms).
XLV LONG
The capital cycle score for US Regional Banks was bad for years but has "started to inflect a lot higher" recently. Banks have been cautious (high loan loss provisions), yet ROE has been steadily improving. This divergence—high caution vs. improving returns—signals a classic capital cycle turn where competition is low, and profitability is set to surprise to the upside. LONG. A resurgence of commercial real estate (CRE) defaults or a "higher for longer" rate environment breaking credit quality.
KRE LONG
Tian notes that high-quality businesses with "network effects" (specifically mentioning Visa, Mastercard, and MercadoLibre) have been "caught up in the sell-off" and "de-risking takes everything down with it." The market is indiscriminately selling growth. Investors should distinguish between "too hard" SaaS companies and businesses with entrenched network effects or regulatory moats. MercadoLibre specifically was cited as a high-quality business that "tanked" despite strong fundamentals, offering a dislocation entry. LONG. Continued anti-tech sentiment or specific regulatory crackdowns on payment duopolies.
V LONG
MA LONG
MELI LONG
Brazil was a top pick for the year but "got hit on this news" (geopolitical shock). Tian asserts, "I still think over the balance of the year... it still makes sense." The sell-off is viewed as a short-term political/risk adjustment rather than a fundamental break. The core thesis of "EM over DM" and commodity support remains intact once the immediate war panic subsides. LONG (Buy the Dip). Escalation of global conflict driving a sustained flight to the US Dollar, crushing EM currencies.
EWZ LONG
Tian argues that "if gold can even just stay above 5,000... [miners are] way more compelling now than the gold outright." While physical gold has structural tailwinds as a neutral reserve asset, the miners are trading at valuations that imply much lower gold prices. This creates a valuation gap where miners offer significant leverage to the metal's price stability, even without further rallying. LONG. Rising input costs (energy/labor) compressing miner margins despite high gold prices.
GDX LONG
In the context of the "Sovereignty" and "Technology Race" themes, Tian highlights "government consulting and tech consulting" as the most interesting sub-sector where valuations are reasonable. As the US moves toward "National Mobilization," the government must implement complex dual-use technologies. However, the government seeks to reduce direct headcount (DOGE efficiency), necessitating heavy reliance on private consultants to execute these tech upgrades. LONG. aggressive government spending cuts (DOGE) that target contractor waste specifically.
BAH LONG
LDOS LONG
14:00
Mar 01
Mar 01
ALS
GMX
FRU
SGD
LITHIUM
▾
Rule notes a valuation disconnect: Large royalty cos (FNV/WPM) trade at ~2x NAV, mid-caps at 1.4x, and juniors (Elemental Altus, Altius, Globex) at ~1x NAV. Either valuation arbitrage closes the gap, or the big companies will acquire the small ones. Specifically, Altius (ALS) is praised as a "natural resources merchant bank" that buys counter-cyclically (e.g., buying lithium royalties when hated). LONG junior royalty companies for M&A potential and repricing. Lower liquidity and higher cost of capital for smaller firms.
ALS LONG
GMX LONG
ELE LONG
Rule owns all three Canadian oil royalty names (Freehold, Prairie Sky, Topaz). He notes Canadian oil stocks trade at "half the real comps" of US peers. Geological runway. The US Permian Basin is ~85% drilled (tier 1 locations), whereas the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is only ~45% drilled. The political risk (Trudeau) is priced in, creating a deep value opportunity. LONG Canadian oil royalties for yield and inventory longevity. Canadian political interference (carbon taxes, caps) or a crash in oil prices.
FRU LONG
PSK LONG
TPZ LONG
Rule calls Snowline Gold (SGD) a "huge deposit... high grade" and believes it will eventually be bought by a major like Newmont or Agnico. Despite being in the "middle of nowhere" (Yukon), the sheer size (potentially 20M oz) and grade make it a "must-own deposit" for majors facing reserve depletion. LONG SGD as a takeover target. Infrastructure challenges and long timeline to production; likely requires massive capex to build.
SGD LONG
Rule is "terrified that direct lithium extraction (DLE) will work." If oil majors (Exxon, Chevron) successfully extract lithium from oilfield brines using DLE, lithium becomes a byproduct of oil. This would flood the market with supply, crushing the economics of pure-play lithium miners. AVOID/WATCH the Lithium sector. (Note: He acknowledges Altius bought lithium royalties, but he trusts the manager, not the commodity). DLE technology fails to scale, keeping lithium supply constrained and prices high.
LITHIUM AVOID
ALB AVOID
Rule allocated "about half the money that I received... into the silver stocks." Valuation arbitrage. If silver stays flat (e.g., at $75 in his hypothetical), physical holders make $0. However, miners valued at $45 silver would see a 50% increase in Net Present Value (NPV) as the market reprices them to the higher commodity price. LONG silver miners as a leverage play; they offer upside even if the metal price stagnates, whereas the metal does not. Operational risks (fuel costs, labor strikes) or a collapse in silver prices below the miners' marginal cost of production.
SILJ LONG
SIL LONG
Rule states royalty companies are "better businesses" because they have no capital exposure to cost inflation (CAPEX). He highlights Wheaton's (WPM) recent $4.3B stream deal. The copper industry needs $250B to maintain production but only has $100B in free cash flow. They *must* sell gold/silver by-product streams to fund this gap. This creates a massive pipeline of deals for large royalty companies (FNV, WPM) that Wall Street currently underestimates. LONG large-cap royalty companies. They will capture the "tail" value of long-lived mines (30-40 years) which current DCF models (cutting off at 8-9 years) fail to value. High valuations relative to miners; if interest rates rise significantly, their yield becomes less attractive.
FNV LONG
WPM LONG
TFPM LONG
Rule states, "I don't have the guts to own it any longer." It is a massive low-grade sulfide deposit. To work, it needs either $5,000 gold or a technological breakthrough in processing. While Eric Sprott is betting on the tech/price, Rule sees the risk/reward as unfavorable compared to other opportunities. AVOID Hycroft Mining due to metallurgical and economic complexity. A massive spike in gold prices or successful new tech implementation would prove this bearish view wrong.
HYMC AVOID
Rule loved Exxon at $100 but says there is "less to love at 160." Markets overshoot. He expects oil prices (inflated by geopolitical risk) to decline, offering a "second kick at the can" to buy majors at lower valuations. WATCH for a pullback to re-enter. Geopolitical escalation drives oil to $100+, causing XOM to run away to $200+.
XOM NEUTRAL
Rule explicitly stated, "I sold roughly 80% of my silver in mid to late January." He argues the "coiled spring" energy accumulated from 5 years of underperformance was released in the 2024-2025 rally. The narrative is now fully priced in ("people who refused to buy at $20 call me an idiot for selling at $75"). SHORT/TRIM physical silver exposure tactically for the next 12 months, anticipating a "backside of the hockey stick" correction or stagnation in 2026. A hyper-inflationary event could drive nominal prices higher regardless of technical overextension.
SIVR SHORT
SILVER SHORT
Rule identifies Agnico Eagle as a top pick, citing "three CEOs in 60 years" and a focus on the "best cost quartile worldwide." In a high-inflation environment, operational efficiency protects margins. Rule prefers "divorcing myself from the financial and operating risk of an inefficient management team" over chasing maximum leverage with lower-quality miners. LONG AEM as the "best of breed" major gold producer. Gold price correction; operational issues in the Abitibi region.
AEM LONG
21:13
Feb 15
Feb 15
MCHI
FXI
GOOGL
MSFT
META
▾
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
medium-term
Krugman argues China is "exporting the demand deficiency via trade surpluses" and predicts China will "run into a wall of tariffs by everybody," specifically noting a coming "big European backlash." China's economic model relies on exports to offset weak domestic consumption. If both the US (already 37% tariffs) and Europe (coming soon) block these exports, Chinese manufacturing and export-heavy equities will suffer severe revenue compression. AVOID Chinese equities, particularly exporters. China successfully pivots to domestic consumption (which Krugman deems necessary but hasn't happened yet).
MCHI AVOID
FXI AVOID
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
medium-term
Krugman compares the current AI spending to the late 1990s Telecom boom. He notes that while the internet was real, "the companies that did the big spending in many cases did not survive." He describes current tech giants as "aging behemoths... spending vast amounts... to dig their moats deeper." The "Hyperscalers" are the ones laying out massive Capex ($500-600B). If this parallels the Telecom boom, the *spenders* of capital are at risk of poor ROI and financial distress, even if the technology (AI) eventually changes the world. AVOID the massive spenders (Hyperscalers) due to risk of capital destruction. AI generates immediate, high-margin revenue that justifies the Capex (unlike the dark fiber glut of the 90s).
GOOGL AVOID
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
short-term
Regarding the AI boom, Krugman notes, "There's an awful lot of chips produced in Taiwan... so it may not be as much of a stimulus to the US economy." While the US companies (spenders) are risking capital, the manufacturers of the hardware are the immediate beneficiaries of the cash flow. The "leakage" of US stimulus goes directly to Taiwanese manufacturers. LONG the hardware manufacturers receiving the Capex spend. Geopolitical conflict in Taiwan or a sudden halt in US Hyperscaler Capex.
TSM LONG
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
medium-term
Krugman admits "R-star has moved way up" and the 2019 logic that debt doesn't matter (because r < g) no longer holds. "Interest rates are much, much higher... higher than the sort of long run growth rate of the economy." When interest rates exceed the growth rate, debt dynamics become unsustainable. The fiscal deficit is now a "problem" whereas it wasn't before. This structural shift suggests rates will not return to near-zero levels, creating headwinds for long-duration bonds. AVOID long-duration Treasuries as the era of "free money" is over. A severe recession forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively despite the structural issues.
TLT AVOID
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
long-term
Krugman states the dollar is the "money of monies" and replacing it is harder than imagined. He notes, "The issue is not that the dollar might be replaced by something else, but that the dollar might be replaced by nothing else." Despite fears of weaponization or deficits, there is no alternative (TINA). The Euro is too fragmented, and the RMB has capital controls. Therefore, betting on the dollar's collapse is betting against the structural reality of global finance. LONG USD as the continued global hegemon. A total breakdown of the international order leading to a fragmented, chaotic monetary system (Argentina-style loss of credibility).
USD LONG
02:47
Feb 11
Feb 11
IWM
SOXX
GLD
SLV
SPY
▾
Berg’s institutional model generated a sell signal on December 11, 2025, based on a sharp shift in the VXN (Nasdaq VIX). Additionally, the Russell 2000 formed a unique "one-day island reversal" at the January 2026 highs. While the market hasn't collapsed yet, the S&P 500 has gained less than 1.2% since the December signal, which is consistent with historical topping processes. The "island reversal" indicates trapped bulls and a shift in momentum from "broadening" to distribution. Berg is currently ~110% net short across major indices (S&P, Nasdaq, Russell) in his institutional portfolio. A rare oversold signal on Feb 5th (VXN up 35% in 3 days) suggests a potential short-term bounce or failed breakdown.
IWM SHORT
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
The Semiconductor index gapped up into its high on January 29th, and its first down day coincided exactly with a "cycle date" (January 30th). Gaps into highs are often exhaustion signals (climax tops). When combined with a cycle turn date, it suggests the momentum has broken. Berg shorted this sector immediately following the cycle peak. Short the semiconductor sector ETF. Continued AI mania could force a retest of highs; Berg admits he may cover if short-term strength persists.
SOXX SHORT
Gold hit a "climax top" in late January 2026 with record volume and gaps. Fundamentally, Berg notes Gold is at an all-time high relative to CPI, Oil, and other commodities, implying it has detached from inflation hedging. Historically, when Gold disconnects from commodities/CPI this drastically (like in 1980), it enters a multi-year bear market. Refiners are reportedly turning away silver scrap due to oversupply, contradicting the "shortage" narrative. Berg sold calls and initiated short positions, expecting a significant correction or bear market. Geopolitical shocks or currency debasement could reignite the rally.
GLD SHORT
SLV SHORT
Berg’s "Long Life" portfolio is holding specific international positions: Argentina (ARGT), Trip.com (TCOM), Alibaba (BABA), Shinhan Financial (SHG), and Korea Electric Power (KEP). While bearish on US Beta, Berg identifies technical breakouts in foreign markets that are undervalued or uncorrelated to the US tech bubble. Korea and China are showing "new high" breakouts while US software lags. Long specific international value/growth plays. Global recession or US dollar strength hurting emerging markets.
KEP LONG
ARGT LONG
TCOM LONG
BABA LONG
SHG LONG
Berg is long Seagate (STX) due to a technical breakout on a gap, Phinia (PHIN) as a recent add, Constellation Energy (CEG) as an AI-energy play, and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) as a cash proxy. Even in a potential market top, specific stocks with low P/Es or strong technical momentum (gap breakouts) can outperform. Berkshire is held as a defensive "cash alternative" that holds up better in downturns. Long idiosyncratic US equities with strong technical setups. Broad market beta drag if the S&P 500 crashes significantly.
STX LONG
BRK.B LONG
PHIN LONG
CEG LONG
When shown charts of Software ETFs (IGV) and majors like Adobe (ADBE) and ServiceNow (NOW), Berg describes them as "dogs" with "rolling tops" and "distribution volume." Despite strong earnings, these stocks are falling or stagnating. When price action diverges negatively from earnings (good news, bad price), it indicates the "market knows more than the earnings," likely signaling obsolescence or valuation compression. Avoid or Short the software sector. A rotation back into software if hardware/semis overheat.
IGV AVOID
ADBE AVOID
CRM AVOID
NOW AVOID
Bitcoin peaked on an October 6th cycle date and failed to hold the low on the February 3rd cycle date. Berg argues Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (unlike gold/commodities) and trades purely on sentiment/cycles. The failure to hold the recent cycle low suggests the downtrend is not over. Do not buy; the technicals suggest the low has failed. A sudden shift in liquidity or sentiment could reverse the cycle trend.
BTC AVOID
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